A new decade to bring about a fresh start? This has been the theme of countless news tennis features for about a month now as we ushered in the 20s. In men’s tennis, the start of a new era is an old topic but the hope is renewed almost before every Grand Slam, more so at the season-opening Australian Open.
The start of the new decade saw a brand new competition, the ATP Cup, to warm-up for the first Major of the year. Even with most of the world’s top players in action with their national teams, the final singles match of the competition was one Australia is very familiar with: Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal, the world No 1 vs the world No 2. A repeat of last year’s Australian open final, with the result to match as Serbia beat Spain.
The last time the world’s best players gathered together, the final was between two rising stars. Stefanos Tsitispas’ thrilling win over Dominic Thiem in the season-ending ATP Finals was seen as another sign of a new beginning.
But whether tennis fans hope for a fresh start because of how 2019 ended or prepare for the same old based on the ATP Cup final, a new record beckons whoever wins the Australian Open.
The first Grand Slam of the year is theoretically supposed to be a blank slate, but men’s tennis – which has long teased a breakthrough run by the ‘Next Gen’ – is poised for the finishing lap of the golden generation’s race.
Whether it will be an unprecedented eighth Australian Open for Djokovic, a record first Grand Slam for some young player or a record-extending 21st Major or the moment Nadal equals Roger Federer’s tally, only time will tell. But no matter who the last man standing is, the result in Melbourne 2020 will lay down the marker for how the GOAT debate will finally play out.
Djokovic, Nadal in the groove
If the ATP Cup is anything to go by, it will be race between the two top-ranked players. Djokovic and Nadal both look fit, in solid form and have been tested early in the season. The short off-season with two new tournaments could prove to be a roadblock for both with the Serb withdrawing from Adelaide International. But players of their calibre know how to cruise through in the early stages and peak at the right time.
Given his age-defying tennis and the fact that he has won two of the last three titles at the Australian Open, one just cannot count Federer out. After withdrawing from the ATP Cup, the 38-year-old will be coming into Australian Open with no competitive matches this season. Whether it will be a case of rustiness or fresh legs, it will be interesting to see how the Swiss approaches the Major. But if his final tournament of 2019 was an indication, especially the win over Djokovic, the fire is still very much there.
As predictable as the final winners of Grand Slam have been in men’s singles tennis, the path is always strewn with surprises, like when Tsitsipas and Lucas Pouille were the semi-finalists last year.
This Australian Open, the list of surprise packages is far more well-defined than in the last few years. In the last couple of years, the younger contenders have shown a lot more heart and fight than the generation before them, helped by the aging greats.
The fourth seed, at his career-best rank, is US Open runner-up Daniil Medvedev. After a sizzling run on hard-courts in the latter part of 2019, he seemed to be worn out. But fresh from leading Russia to the semis of the ATP Cup – where he dropped his only match to Djokovic – he will be raring to go in Melbourne.
Sixth seed Tistispas had his best Slam result here last year when he stunned two-time defending champion Federer in the fourth round and reached the semi-finals. He secured his biggest career title to close out 2019 but has endured a torrid start to the year with one win in the ATP Cup. Still, of all the young guns, the Greek seems to have the package needed.
If these two can deal with the pressure of expectations and show the form they have on hardcourts in the past, they pose the best bet for a 1990s born Grand Slam winner.
Who can spring a surprise?
On the other hand, are the long-held hopes – fifth seed Dominic Thiem and seventh seed Alexander Zverev. Erratic as ever but always a threat, both have lukewarm starts at the ATP Cup, but look fit and aim to hit their strides in Melbourne.
But the most entertaining matches may be the ones away from the top 10 seeds. The ranks are packed with names that can turn the tables on their given day and the challengers for the last eight might actually put up a more exciting battle than the final stages.
Eighth seed Matteo Berrettini and 18th seed Grigor Dimitrov reached the US Open semis, 17th seed Andrey Rublev is coming in with an unbeaten run and two trophies in two weeks, 13th seed Denis Shapovalov beat Tsitsipas and Zverev while stretching Djokovic to three at ATP Cup, 15th seed Stan Wawrinka is a former champion and never not a threat while 23rd seed Nick Kyrgios has added motivation when playing in Australia. The unseeded big names such as Marin Cilic and Kevin Anderson will be dangerous floaters.
All of these are players that can unsettle the Big Three in three sets and even five, on their given day. The challenge for them will be to maintain the momentum and mental stability for two weeks in five sets under the heat of the spotlight and Melbourne conditions.
Another major factor at the Slam will be how players and organisers deal with the air quality due to the raging bushfires in Australia. While the tournament has introduced a policy of play suspension if pollutants increase, fitness and energy conservation will be an even bigger factor at the Australian Open.
Ulitmately, not one of the younger players have been able to stand the test in the longer format and tournaments and the Big Three have continued their dominance for three straight years now.
As things stand, the hegemony may well continue into the start of another decade, but the battle to break it promises to be more exciting than in the last year given how the young challengers have shaped up.