Moody’s cuts India’s growth forecast to 7.7% from 8.8% for this year
The global ratings agency cited the rising interest rates, uneven distribution of monsoon and slowing global growth as reasons for the reduced projection.
Global ratings agency Moody’s on Thursday cut down India’s economic growth for the current fiscal to 7.7% from its previous estimate of 8.8% in May, PTI reported. It also lowered India’s growth forecast for 2023 to 5.2% from 5.4%.
The agency cited the rising interest rates, uneven distribution of monsoon and slowing global growth for the reduced projection.
Moody’s estimate came a day after data released by the Indian government showed that the country’s economy grew by 13.5% in the first quarter (April-June) of the financial year 2022-’23.
The growth rate, however, was below the expectations of the Reserve Bank of India, which earlier this month had projected the first quarter GDP growth to be at 16.2%.
On Thursday, Moody’s said that the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain a reasonably tight policy stance in 2023 to prevent domestic inflationary pressures from building further.
“Inflation remains a challenge with the RBI having to balance growth and inflation, while also containing the impact of imported inflation from the year-to-date depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar of around 7%,” the agency said, according to Live Mint.
It also said that high-frequency data for the Indian economy shows strong and broad-based underlying momentum in the first quarter of 2022-’23, according to PTI.
“Services and manufacturing sectors have seen robust upswings in the economic activity, according to hard and survey data, such as PMI [Purchasing Managers Index], capacity utilisation, mobility, tax filing and collection, business earnings and credit indicators,” Moody’s said.
The agency said that it expects inflationary pressures to weaken in the July-December period of the current year and further in 2023.
“A quicker let-up in global commodity prices would provide significant upside to growth,” the agency added. “In addition, economic growth would be stronger than what is being projected for 2023 if the private-sector capex cycle were to gain steam.”