Without “global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before”, the world will not meet its Paris Agreement target of holding global warming to a 1.5 degree Celsius rise in temperature, the United Nations Emissions Gap Report 2024 released on Thursday said.

Globally, nations would need to decrease emissions by 7.5% annually to stay on target. In contrast, India saw a 6.1% increase in its total greenhouse gas emissions in 2023. China saw a 5.2% increase in emissions while the United States and the European Union managed to decrease their emissions, with the European Union driving down its emissions 7.5%.

To meet the target, nations need to lower emissions 42% before 2030 compared to 2019 levels, and 57% by 2035.

“Current promises are nowhere near these levels, putting us on track for best-case global warming of 2.6°C this century,” the researchers observed.

This comes two weeks before the beginning of the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties, more commonly known as COP29, where countries will submit their new nationally determined contributions for decreasing emissions.

India emitted 2.9 tonnes of greenhouse gases per capita in 2023, equivalent to increases in the African Union and the world’s 47 least-developed countries. In contrast, the United States emitted 18 tonnes per capita and China emitted 11 tonnes per capita.

India is the third largest emitter globally, behind China and the United States. However, the researchers noted that despite being highly populous, India has only contributed a minor share of historic cumulative emissions.

India is projected to meet its nationally determined contribution goals under current policies. The nation’s policy document has partially covered all sectors and gases but has not published a detailed implementation plan like France or the European Union. India’s policy document also lacks transparent information about carbon removal, according to the report.

With massive global investment and mobilisation, United Nations researchers say it is still possible for the world to meet its Paris Agreement goals. By scaling up investment in solar and wind energy and taking dramatic action in the transportation and industry sectors, there is still a chance for a global reversal.

“Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot,” said Inger Andersen, UN Environment Programme Executive Director.