Financial services firm JPMorgan on Thursday revised its odds for a global recession by the end of the year from 40% to 60%, in response to United States President Donald Trump’s new tariffs that were announced on Wednesday, Business Insider reported.

In a research note published to clients, Bruce Kasman, the firm’s chief global economist said: “Disruptive US policies has been recognised as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year. The latest news reinforces our fears as US trade policy has turned decisively less business-friendly than we had anticipated.”

Trump on Wednesday announced a 10% minimum tariff on most goods imported into the country, which will take effect on Saturday. The US government also imposed a 25% tariff on all foreign-made automobiles, which took effect on April 3.

Besides, Washington said that it was imposing reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries, including a 26% “discounted” levy on India.

“The effect ... is likely to be magnified through [tariff] retaliation, a slide in US business sentiment and supply-chain disruptions,” Reuters quoted JPMorgan’s research note that was titled “There will be Blood” as saying.

The financial firm's forecast came alongside several other similar projections from other banks.

Investment services company Barclays on Thursday predicted a gross domestic product contraction in the United States in 2025, indicating a recession. The next day, Citi economists also reduced this year’s growth forecast to 0.1%, while Union Bank of Switzerland reduced theirs to 0.4%, Bloomberg reported.

US markets on Thursday experienced their worst day since the Covid-19 pandemic, with equities losing $3 trillion in value.

The tariffs have led to concerns of a broader trade war that could disrupt the global economy and drive up inflation.

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