Private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted an above normal monsoon in India, starting in July. On Tuesday it announced that the monsoon will be 109% of the long-period average, for the four-month period from June to September. It also said the monsoon would arrive on time in Kerala, though the Indian Meteorological Department predicted it would arrive late on June 7.

According to the Skymet forecast, rainfall will be 13% below normal in June, 8% above normal in July, 13% above normal in August and 23% above normal in September, Livemint reported. The forecast also added that the monsoon will spill over into October too.

Last year eleven states had a rainfall deficit, which was blamed partly on El Nino, a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean that has a global impact on weather conditions. Jatin Singh, CEO of Skymet said, “The El Nino is tapering off and it will collapse after the onset of Monsoon. It is not likely to have an adverse impact on the Monsoon performance.”