The India Meteorological Department on Tuesday predicted that the southwest monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on May 30. Following this forecast, state relief commissioners will meet in Delhi on Wednesday to discuss crisis situations that may arise from extreme monsoon conditions, reported PTI.
In a statement, the weather department said that its statistical model keeps a buffer for error of four days. “Currently, the conditions are good and the monsoon will hit Kerala by near the normal date,” said AK Sahai, IMD head of climate services and analysis group, according to The Indian Express.
The IMD uses six predictors for its forecasts, reported IANS. “[This] includes minimum temperatures over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation over south China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean, upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean and outgoing long wave radiation over the southwest Pacific region,” read the statement. Met officials said monsoon would pick up pace once the existing anticyclone present in the Bay of Bengal dissipates completely.
The IMD started predicting the onset of monsoon over Kerala in 2005. Barring 2015, the forecasts proved to be correct for all other years. If the predictions prove to be correct this year too, the monsoon will be arriving on time after a long gap. Except for 2013, monsoon has been delayed in the past five years.