India’s economic growth is likely to have picked up pace in the three months ending September, after five quarters of slowdown, as the impact of the Goods and Services Tax and demonetisation on the economy reduces, reports said.
India’s gross domestic product, or GDP, growth estimates data will be released after market hours on Thursday. Several polls have forecast better economic growth.
GDP is one of the primary indicators of the health of an economy, and is the value of all goods and services produced over a specific period. The data could help the Narendra Modi administration, which has been facing criticism over the hasty launch of Goods and Services Tax in July that hit millions of small businesses due to complex rules and technical glitches, Reuters reported.
But this quarter could be different.
According to a Reuters poll of analysts, India’s GDP is likely to have grown 6.4% from the July-September quarter a year ago, and from 5.7% in the preceding quarter. Bloomberg has also forecast a GDP growth of 6.4% in the quarter, based on the median estimate of 46 economists it polled.
Rabobank, which correctly predicted the June quarter’s 5.7% number, said GDP will grow by 5.9%, while Wells Fargo predicted 7.1%, Mint reported. ETNow’s Economy Indicator has predicted growth of 6.5%.
India’s gross value added growth, another measure of economic growth that strips out impact of indirect taxes and subsidies, in the quarter-ended September is also likely to grow at 6.2% from a three-year low of 5.6% in the previous quarter, the Bloomberg poll said.
Factors influencing growth
A rise in industrial production and exports, and major festivals, would have boosted consumer demand, Mint reported. The growth is also likely to have been aided by big companies that adjusted to the changes after GST. Prominent Indian firms saw their best profit growth in the last six quarters, in July-September, according to Thomson Reuters data.