The Ministry of Finance on Sunday said that India may have crossed the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in September as cases had declined, while tests were increased during a 14-day period. It, however, cautioned that the pandemic was from over.

“Data for the 14-day period from September 17 to 30 suggests that India may have crossed the peak of Covid-19 case-load,” the finance ministry said in its monthly outlook report for September. “During this period, the seven-day moving average of daily positive cases has steadily declined from about 93,000 to 83,000 while the seven-day moving average of daily tests have risen from about 1,15,000 to 1,24,000.”

The ministry said that the “declining positivity rate” across India has set the stage for further economic recovery. It said that all stakeholders need to work towards this goal as restrictions imposed during the nationwide lockdown are lifted as access and mobility are eased.

India crossed a landmark milestone as active Covid-19 cases continued to be less than 10 lakh for 14 days continuously. The country’s coronavirus count rose to 66,23,815 on Monday with 74,422 new cases in the last 24 hours, according to the health ministry data. The toll increased by 903 to 1,02,685. So far, more than 55 lakh people have recovered from the virus in India. The recovery rate stood at 84.34%.

The report said that people need to focus on “self-protection with due precautions” more than “social distancing”, which fits the context of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tweaked idiom of “jaan bhi aur jahaan bhi [health along with prosperity]” from “jaan hai to jahaan hai [prioritising health over prosperity]”.

The ministry also spoke about the government’s effort to boost the economy, including reforms in the agriculture, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises or MSMEs, labour and other sectors.

It said that the reforms in the agriculture sector was long overdue, which had kept Indian farmer enslaved to the local market and middlemen. The ministry was referring to the three farming bills passed in Parliament during the recently-concluded Monsoon Session.

“While every other category of producer in India had the freedom to decide where to sell his/her produce, the Indian farmer did not. The local monopolists created by this legal infrastructure enabled the intermediaries to prosper at the cost of the farmer, especially the poor ones without the wherewithal to store their produce. The agricultural reforms enable the farmer to sell where he gets the best deal and thereby enable competition that is sine qua non to create welfare for the small farmer.”

— Ministry of Finance

The ministry in its report said that the MSME sector needs to be an early driver of the economic recovery as it employs more than 11 crore people. It praised the MSMEs for their “strength and resilience” when the sector made India the second largest manufacturer of personal protective equipment kits in the world.

The finance ministry stated that the government’s decision to change the definition of the MSMEs facilitated “expansion and growth of these enterprises without them fearing the loss of government incentives, thereby avoiding the phenomenon of dwarfs among” them. It added that labour reforms would also help the MSMEs to increase employment, enhance labour productivity and wages in the sector.

The ministry also said that the implementation of the Aatmanirbhar Bharat or self-reliance package and unlocking of the country have made sure that the economic recovery gained momentum.

“This [momentum] is seen in agriculture with production of kharif foodgrains in 2020-21 estimated to go past the previous year’s level. The growth of demand in the rural sector is reflected in registration of two wheelers/three wheelers/passenger vehicles along with tractor sales reaching/surpassing previous year levels in August.”

— Ministry of Finance

The report stated that the India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $542.02 billion [over 39 lakh crore] as of September 25 and was equivalent to more than 13 months of imports. This will provide a “comfortable buffer” for the increase in imports following a boost in the economic activity, it added.

The ministry further said it was lending “unflinching” support to state government for economic revival. “Despite the pandemic and the consequent fall in gross tax revenue, the tax devolution to states has happened without disruption to stand at Rs 2.17 lakh crore in the first five months of this fiscal, less by only Rs 37,629 lakh crore than the previous year,” it said, adding that the government had permitted an additional borrowing limit of up to 2% of gross state domestic product to states for the financial year 2020-’21 to tackle the pandemic and its need for higher expenditure.

The ministry said the Narendra Modi government had taken measures to counter to the risk to short-term and medium-term growth rate, which will also strengthen the fundamentals of the economy for sustainable long-term growth.