India’s second wave of coronavirus cases might reach its peak in the second half of April, and last up to 100 days when calculated from February 15, a report released by the State Bank of India on Thursday showed, according to Mint.

The report, “Second wave of infections: The beginning of the end?”, has been written by SBI’s Group Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh.

“India is witnessing second wave of infection beginning February 2021, with daily new cases rising again,” it said. “Pan-India total cases in the second wave expected in the order of 25 lakhs (based on trends in data till March 23). Considering the number of days from the current level of daily new cases to the peak level during the first wave, India might reach the peak in the second half of April.”

The report said that local lockdowns or restrictions had been ineffective in controlling the spread of the coronavirus, and that the vaccination drive was the only hope. “This is visible in case of many states including Maharashtra and Punjab,” it said, according to Mint.

“Though global Covid-19 experience shows second wave much higher in intensity than the first wave, presence of vaccine makes the difference currently,” the report added. “Thus India will be able to manage the situation better.”

The SBI report suggested that the speed of vaccination be increased across states. It estimated that the vaccination of citizens over the age of 45 could be completed in four months, if daily vaccinations are increased from 34 lakh to 40-45 lakh, NDTV reported.

Also read: Economic activity should continue unabated, rising Covid cases a ‘matter of concern’: RBI governor

SBI’s report also made certain observations about business indicators. It said that the Business Activity Index reduced in the last week. It added that the effect of coronavirus-related restrictions imposed by several states might become clear in the next month.

Earlier on Thursday, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das had said that the country’s economic activity should not be hampered due to the recent surge in coronavirus cases.

He also said that with the vaccination drive underway, the stringent lockdowns that were imposed during the first wave of the pandemic last year, might not be needed again. “This time around we have some additional insurance against the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic,” the RBI chief said.

India on Thursday recorded 53,476 coronavirus cases, pushing its tally to 1,17,87,534, This is the highest daily rise in cases since October 23. With 251 more deaths, India’s toll rose to 1,60,692.