Financial firm Moody’s Analytics has predicted that the current United States President Donald Trump may be able to win an easy second term when America goes to polls in 2020. Moody’s has a record as “one of the most reliable forecasters in the US”, CNN reported.
Moody’s uses three models to predict how a state will vote – data on personal finance, stock markets, and unemployment. These parameters look at “varying levels of economic forecasts” and have predicted a landslide victory for Trump. The policies of the candidates are irrelevant under these models.
“It doesn’t look like the economy can fall quickly enough to really turn the election towards Democrats,” Dan White, head of fiscal policy research at Moody’s Analytics, said.
White also elaborated on the eccentric nature of Trump’s approval ratings. “It’s no secret that his approval rating has not been as high as previous presidents, but what’s extraordinary about him is that his numbers don’t move at all. It is very difficult to convince somebody who is a strong Donald Trump supporter to not be one,” he said.
Moody’s had, however, predicted the 2016 elections incorrectly – supposedly because of “voting numbers, not the underlying thesis”.