If you are wondering why there’s such a great deal of panic over swine flu in India, take a look at the spike in cases reported in the first 50 days of 2015. Last year, 937 cases of swine flu were reported across India, which comes to an average of less than three cases a day. This year, within the first 50 days, more than 11,000 cases have been reported, which comes to an average of 220 cases a day. This is three times the average daily count of cases reported in 2009, the year the new disease swept across the world.
The daily average of cases might plateau later in the year, if the swine flu cases are contained. But for now, the rate of cases is significantly higher than previous years.
The spike in swine flu cases, however, has come with a reduction in the disease’s fatality rate. Of the 937 cases reported last year, 218 cases resulted in deaths, which amounted to a high fatality percentage of over 23%. This year, in comparison, even though the number of deaths is significantly higher, the fatality rate is lower at just above 6%.
Doctors had told Scroll earlier that as more groups get exposed to the virus, they also develop immunity to it. In 2009 and 2010, almost 3,000 people died of swine flu in India. That high fatality occurred because India’s population had not been exposed to the swine flu virus before, said Abhay Kudale, a scientist at the Centre for Health Research and Development in Pune. Until the full population is exposed, there will be regular outbreaks of swine flu such as the present one.
This, however, doesn't mean that those showing symptoms can be careless about it. “An unexposed population definitely needs to be cautious about the symptoms of common flu and swine flu,” said Kudale. “They should not take illnesses casually. That will lead to a delay in diagnosis and treatment. The most important thing is prevention and taking early help when you fall ill.”
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The daily average of cases might plateau later in the year, if the swine flu cases are contained. But for now, the rate of cases is significantly higher than previous years.
The spike in swine flu cases, however, has come with a reduction in the disease’s fatality rate. Of the 937 cases reported last year, 218 cases resulted in deaths, which amounted to a high fatality percentage of over 23%. This year, in comparison, even though the number of deaths is significantly higher, the fatality rate is lower at just above 6%.
Doctors had told Scroll earlier that as more groups get exposed to the virus, they also develop immunity to it. In 2009 and 2010, almost 3,000 people died of swine flu in India. That high fatality occurred because India’s population had not been exposed to the swine flu virus before, said Abhay Kudale, a scientist at the Centre for Health Research and Development in Pune. Until the full population is exposed, there will be regular outbreaks of swine flu such as the present one.
This, however, doesn't mean that those showing symptoms can be careless about it. “An unexposed population definitely needs to be cautious about the symptoms of common flu and swine flu,” said Kudale. “They should not take illnesses casually. That will lead to a delay in diagnosis and treatment. The most important thing is prevention and taking early help when you fall ill.”
