While the coastal areas of Kerala and Karnataka have been doused with heavy rains since Monday, weather forecasters are debating whether these showers actually signal the arrival of the South West monsoon.

For private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services, the rains were a vindication of their prediction that the monsoon would hit Kerala by May 30. On the other hand, the Indian Meteorological Department predicted a week’s delay in its arrival, setting the date at June 7.

The Met department still stands by its prediction, noting that there is a difference between rain activity and the monsoon. "What's happening at the moment over Kerala is thunderstorm activity," Sivananda Pai, the head of the Met department's Long Range Forecasting division told The Times of India. "Thunderstorms are taking place in the evening due to heating up of the land, followed by heavy rain."

One important criterion for the onset of monsoon is that at least 60% of the department's 14 weather stations across Kerala and coastal Karnataka should record 2.5 mm rainfall or more for two consecutive days. Both the Met department and Skymet agree that this condition has been satisfied. However, the Met department claims that certain other important weather conditions, such as the intensity of the westerlies trade winds, have not been yet been met.

Regardless of which of these monsoon predictions are accurate, the fact remains that these showers come as relief to a nation inflicted with drought for several months.

These Twitter images are testimony to the fact that, monsoon or not, the recent rains were indeed welcome.