As Prime Minister, Narendra Modi heads to the United States for his fourth trip in two years, the key highlights of his visit are likely to be his meeting with President Obama on June 7, his speech to the joint session of Congress on June 8, and the reception hosted by Senate and House foreign relations committees and the India Caucuses in the House and the Senate.
It is important to remember that Indo-US relations are a work in progress, based on the strong foundations laid by Modi’s predecessors Dr Manmohan Singh, Atal Behari Vajpayee and PV Narasimha Rao, beginning at a time when India lacked economic heft as it does today and thus lacked the economic and strategic leverage.
The changing geo-politics of South Asia as well as China’s increasingly assertive role on the South China sea have been enabling factors along with common values – unflinching belief in democracy and pluralism. Where Modi deserves credit is the energy he has infused in this relationship, not just through his personal chemistry with President Obama, but also in reaching out to other stakeholders in the relationship including US corporates and sections of the diaspora more aggressively.
Modi has also invested immense political capital in this all important relationship. His invitation to President Obama on India’s Republic Day in January 2015, was a clear case in point. In the strategic sphere, he not only showed urgency in taking forward the Indo-US nuclear deal, which he had criticised when in opposition, but also did not shy away from strengthening the India-Japan-US trilateral alliance as a counter to Chinese assertiveness on the South China sea issue.
The strong consensus for better ties is not just evident from the Indian side, but also in the US where Republicans and Democrats, who don’t agree on many other domestic and foreign policy issues, have a clear unanimity about building stronger ties with India. Only recently, the US House of Representatives approved an amendment to the National Defence Authorisation Act whereby US-India defence ties, specifically in transfer of technology, have been upgraded to the level of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation allies.
What India expects
While there is a need to be realistic about outcomes of every such diplomatic visit, there are clear areas where progress is expected.
The first is India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the elite group of 45 countries which controls the transfer of high technology. India had already sent in its application for membership of the NSG on May 12. The NSG will be holding a plenary session on June 9 and then one in Seoul from June 20 to 24. While the US has supported India’s case, China has been opposing India’s entry. China has linked India’s entry to the NSG to India signing the Non Proliferation Treaty and has also put up a condition that it will only support India’s entry if Pakistan too gets membership. During Pranab Mukherjee's recent visit to China, this issue was high on the agenda but China still remains non-committal and is likely to create roadblocks. The importance the government attaches to entry into the NSG was reflected by Modi’s inclusion of Switzerland and Mexico in his itinerary, the two countries that could play an important role. The latter has in fact opposed India’s entry, and India is trying to reach out to potential spoilers.
Second, in addition to the inking of three defence agreements – Logistics Support Agreement, Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement, and Basic Exchange Cooperation Agreement – there is likely to be further progress on the construction of six Nuclear reactors by Westinghouse in India.
Third, the key agenda items for Modi and Obama are likely to be South China Sea, and geo-political issues in South and West Asia. Recent differences between both countries at the World Trade Organisation on issues like India’s solar plan, higher US visa fee for professionals and US seed company Mosanto’s threat to leave India after its royalty fees was slashed also need to be handled at the highest level so that they do not adversely impact the otherwise robust relationship.
Fourth, Modi will also use his US visit for reaching out to the business community in his interaction with CEOs on June 7. He is scheduled to address the US-India Business Council annual gala and is likely to flag some of the key reforms undertaken by his government, especially easing out FDI norms in the defence sector. President Obama in his January 2015 visit to India compared the India-US trade relationship ($100 billion) with the US-China relationship (over $500 billion).
While a number of comprehensive economic and strategic issues can be dealt with at the national level, individual states need to be made key stakeholders especially on economic issues, since key reforms such as labour laws and implementation are ultimately carried out at the state-level. Almost all Indian states are working closely with the US. The presence of a strong diaspora in the USA also adds to the economic linkages in states like Telangana, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. With the increasing interactions between Indian and US states, the time may have come for a sub-national dialogue on the lines of what the US has with China, and India also institutionalised with China in 2015.
To conclude, one thing is clear that irrespective of who becomes US President in November 2016, the India-US relationship can be expected to further strengthen given the bi-partisan support for the same in the US, and a reasonable consensus between the key political parties in India even though they may seek to play spoil sport when in opposition.
Tridivesh Singh Maini is a New Delhi based policy analyst associated with The Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat.