On June 13, the Israeli military began striking what it claimed were nuclear targets and other sites in Iran, with the aim of stalling Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel. The official toll in Iran is at least 430 so far, while at least 25 persons have died in Israel.

The continued exchange of fire has led to concerns of a wider regional conflict that the United States could get drawn into. Washington is an ally of Israel and acts as a guarantor of the country’s security.

Tehran has rejected US President Donald Trump’s demand for an “unconditional surrender” and vowed to fight back.

The prevailing uncertainty has led to a spike in global oil prices. The price of benchmark Brent crude had jumped to $78 per barrel by Thursday from $69 per barrel on June 12, the day before the conflict began.

But the spike was not because of Israeli military’s strikes reportedly on the Shahran oil depot in Tehran and one of Iran’s largest refineries in Shahr Rey. These actions have little impact on Iranian energy exports.

Instead, the spike in prices primarily stem from concerns about the possible blocking of the Strait of Hormuz amid the conflict. The closure could threaten global energy security.

The chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterbody that connects the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. In 2024, an average 20 million barrels of oil was transported through the strait every day. That was about one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption.

This makes the Strait of Hormuz one of the most strategically important chokepoints.

Iran has in the past threatened to block the waterbody in retaliation to pressure from the West.

On Sunday, the Iranian Parliament decided that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, state-run Press TV quoted lawmaker Major General Kowsari as saying. The final decision will be taken by the Supreme National Security Council, the member of the parliamentary national security commission added.

Unlike other chokepoints such as the Suez Canal or the Strait of Malacca, there is no practical alternative for fuel supplies to bypass the Strait of Hormuz in large volumes.

Cargo ships are already sailing closer to the Omani coast and have been advised by maritime agencies and governments to avoid Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

An attempt to shutter the strait will not go unchallenged because of the regional powers’ strategic interest in keeping fuel supply open. But the ensuing military confrontation may still disrupt supplies to some extent.

India’s interest

When Tel Aviv and Tehran last exchanged missile fire in October, former Indian diplomat Navdeep Suri had told Scroll that if the conflict escalated and became an all-out war, Iran, feeling threatened, had the capacity to block the Strait of Hormuz.

In that case, New Delhi will be staring at a scenario that will “directly impact India’s energy security”, he had said.

“A very large chunk of India’s energy supplies come from there and that could really be serious for us,” explained Suri, who served as India’s ambassador to the United Arab Emirates. “It’s in our interest that it doesn’t get out of hand.”

India consumes 5.5 million barrels of crude per day for refining. Of this, 1.5 million barrels come through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri.

If the strait gets blocked, Amena Bakr, the head of Middle East and OPEC+ insights at analytics firm Kpler, told CNBC International on June 13 that oil prices could jump to three-digits.

To put the impact of such a scenario into context: a spike of every $10 per barrel drives up inflation in India by about 0.5%, financial services company Morgan Stanley had estimated in April 2024.

But Puri told NDTV that closing the strait was not in Iran’s own interest.

Yet, he said, India remained comfortably placed to meet its fuel needs, adding that New Delhi can tap into alternative supplies if needed.

Here is a summary of the week’s other top stories.

Countering Trump’s claims. Prime Minister Narendra Modi told United States President Donald Trump that India will never accept mediation to resolve tensions with Pakistan. The topic came up during a phone call when Trump asked for the details about India’s military strikes – codenamed Operation Sindoor – on Pakistan in May, said Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri.

Trump was told that India had agreed to the ceasefire only on Islamabad’s request, said Misri. The “halt to military action was directly between India and Pakistan”, the foreign secretary quoted Modi as having reiterated.

The call between the two leaders came against the backdrop of the US president repeatedly claiming that he helped settle the tensions between India and Pakistan. New Delhi has rejected Trump’s assertions.

India hyphen Pakistan: US rhetoric revives New Delhi’s nightmare, writes Rohan Venkataramakrishnan

A thaw in relations. India and Canada agreed to reinstate high commissioners in each other’s capitals. This was announced after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney met on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit.

Other diplomatic steps “to restore stability in the relationship” will “follow in due course”, said New Delhi.

In October, New Delhi and Ottawa expelled several diplomats amid frosty bilateral relations. Ties between India and Canada strained in September 2023 after Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister at the time, told his country’s Parliament that intelligence agencies were actively pursuing “credible allegations” tying agents of the Indian government to the murder of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada.

New Delhi has rejected Canada’s allegations.

The language debate. Opposition leaders criticised Union Home Minister Amit Shah for saying that those who speak English in India will soon feel ashamed. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said that English was “not a barrier, but a bridge”, adding that the language provides employment and boosts people’s self-confidence.

Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam MP Kanimozhi said to Shah that “the only thing to be ashamed of is imposing your will on the people and trying to destroy the pluralism of India”.

Shah’s comment on Thursday came against the backdrop of several state governments and regional parties accusing the Union government of imposing Hindi through the National Education Policy’s three-language formula.

Also on Scroll this week

Follow the Scroll channel on WhatsApp for a curated selection of the news that matters throughout the day, and a round-up of major developments in India and around the world every evening. What you won’t get: spam.

And, if you haven’t already, sign up for our Daily Brief newsletter.