As political scientists have noted, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s performance of 282 seats has broken several records. But this needs to be put in perspective by considering the other numbers of these elections.
The records first. This is the first time that a non-Congress party has got a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha since the Janata Party in 1977. The anti-Congress Janata government was a coalition of various parties, which included the BJP’s precursor, the Jana Sangh. The Janata coalition was built in the context of one party's domination over a scattered landscape of ideologically diverse parties. The BJP victory comes after a long period of fragmentation in the party system, which has seen regional parties growing in importance and becoming an indispensable component of any Union government.
For the first time, the BJP set foot in states where it did not enjoy support previously, signaling the existence of a wave. The saffron party gained considerable vote share in Assam, Jammu and Kashmir, West Bengal, and to a lesser extent in Kerala. Though this did not translate into many seats, it attests that the BJP is gaining a national character.
The BJP’s massive victory lies in the Hindi heartland and in Gujarat. It won 216 seats out of the 251 seats here, which is 78 more than in 2009 and 75 more than in their previous peak victory in 1998. In 1977, the Bharatiya Lok Dal had won 235 seats in the same area.
The results are also remarkable in terms of vote share. The BJP received close to half (47.77%) of all votes cast in these areas compared to the third (33.09%) of votes it received in 2009.
By contrast, the Congress suffered its most severe defeat. It has been reduced to only seven seats here, worse than its post-Emergency rout when it retained 12 seats (including 10 in Gujarat). Interestingly, one political family succeeded in surviving these two storms. In 1977, Madhavrao Scindia saved his seat of Guna (as an independent). This year, his son Jyotiraditya Scindia also succeeded in retaining the same seat.
Furthermore, barring Bihar, where the BJP has a small tie-up with Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Jan Shakti Party, the BJP swept the Hindi heartland on its own steam, without seat-sharing agreements with local or regional parties.
In total, two-third of the votes BJP received in 2014 came from the Hindi heartland and Gujarat.
But the most revealing statistic of the success of the BJP in 2014 is its record conversion of votes into seats. Before this year, no party managed to win a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha without an all-India vote share of more than 40%. In 2014, the BJP won about 52% of all the seats in parliament with less than a third (31.1%) of the popular vote. Compare this to Congress’ performance in 2009: even though it received 28.55% of the popular vote, it only managed 206 seats. The 2014 performance of BJP’s allies is even more impressive. With just 7.8% of the total votes, they managed to secure 55 seats. By contrast, the Bahujan Samaj Party received 19% of votes in Uttar Pradesh but did not win even a single seat.
This comes from the disproportionality effect of the majority electoral system, or First Past The Post system that is used in India. In this system, a candidate wins the seat if he receives the maximum number of votes relative to the other candidates and does not therefore need a majority of the popular vote. Thus, when there are multiple candidates in a fragmented polity, as is the case in India, the winner almost always receives less than 50% of the votes cast.
These numbers do not deny the historic nature of BJP’s performance in the 2014 elections. Nonetheless, it does present a slightly nuanced perspective of its victory. The major force behind BJP’s success in 2014 is its impressive conversion of votes to seats in the Hindi heartland and Gujarat, relative to the rest of India. Even though it increased its presence in new terrains, an overwhelming majority of its seats came from its traditional strongholds.
In these states, the governance plank alone did not make the elections and it was rather the combination of ground mobilisation by the BJP’s strong local units and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, shrewd caste arithmetic, the traditional display of religious symbols and certainly the themes of growth and governance, all incarnated by one projected efficient and decisive Other Backward Caste leader of modest origins who captured the imagination of millions of voters aspiring for a better living.
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The records first. This is the first time that a non-Congress party has got a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha since the Janata Party in 1977. The anti-Congress Janata government was a coalition of various parties, which included the BJP’s precursor, the Jana Sangh. The Janata coalition was built in the context of one party's domination over a scattered landscape of ideologically diverse parties. The BJP victory comes after a long period of fragmentation in the party system, which has seen regional parties growing in importance and becoming an indispensable component of any Union government.
For the first time, the BJP set foot in states where it did not enjoy support previously, signaling the existence of a wave. The saffron party gained considerable vote share in Assam, Jammu and Kashmir, West Bengal, and to a lesser extent in Kerala. Though this did not translate into many seats, it attests that the BJP is gaining a national character.
The BJP’s massive victory lies in the Hindi heartland and in Gujarat. It won 216 seats out of the 251 seats here, which is 78 more than in 2009 and 75 more than in their previous peak victory in 1998. In 1977, the Bharatiya Lok Dal had won 235 seats in the same area.
The results are also remarkable in terms of vote share. The BJP received close to half (47.77%) of all votes cast in these areas compared to the third (33.09%) of votes it received in 2009.
By contrast, the Congress suffered its most severe defeat. It has been reduced to only seven seats here, worse than its post-Emergency rout when it retained 12 seats (including 10 in Gujarat). Interestingly, one political family succeeded in surviving these two storms. In 1977, Madhavrao Scindia saved his seat of Guna (as an independent). This year, his son Jyotiraditya Scindia also succeeded in retaining the same seat.
Furthermore, barring Bihar, where the BJP has a small tie-up with Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Jan Shakti Party, the BJP swept the Hindi heartland on its own steam, without seat-sharing agreements with local or regional parties.
In total, two-third of the votes BJP received in 2014 came from the Hindi heartland and Gujarat.
But the most revealing statistic of the success of the BJP in 2014 is its record conversion of votes into seats. Before this year, no party managed to win a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha without an all-India vote share of more than 40%. In 2014, the BJP won about 52% of all the seats in parliament with less than a third (31.1%) of the popular vote. Compare this to Congress’ performance in 2009: even though it received 28.55% of the popular vote, it only managed 206 seats. The 2014 performance of BJP’s allies is even more impressive. With just 7.8% of the total votes, they managed to secure 55 seats. By contrast, the Bahujan Samaj Party received 19% of votes in Uttar Pradesh but did not win even a single seat.
This comes from the disproportionality effect of the majority electoral system, or First Past The Post system that is used in India. In this system, a candidate wins the seat if he receives the maximum number of votes relative to the other candidates and does not therefore need a majority of the popular vote. Thus, when there are multiple candidates in a fragmented polity, as is the case in India, the winner almost always receives less than 50% of the votes cast.
These numbers do not deny the historic nature of BJP’s performance in the 2014 elections. Nonetheless, it does present a slightly nuanced perspective of its victory. The major force behind BJP’s success in 2014 is its impressive conversion of votes to seats in the Hindi heartland and Gujarat, relative to the rest of India. Even though it increased its presence in new terrains, an overwhelming majority of its seats came from its traditional strongholds.
In these states, the governance plank alone did not make the elections and it was rather the combination of ground mobilisation by the BJP’s strong local units and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, shrewd caste arithmetic, the traditional display of religious symbols and certainly the themes of growth and governance, all incarnated by one projected efficient and decisive Other Backward Caste leader of modest origins who captured the imagination of millions of voters aspiring for a better living.