As final preparations begin for the crucial Bihar assembly election later this year, many are asking a key question: can Lalu Prasad of the Rashtriya Janata Dal influence Yadavs to vote for the anti-Hindutva alliance that his party has struck with Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United)? The question is significant for two reasons. Lalu's future depends on his ability to rally members of his community, even as the Bharatiya Janata Party have also set its sights on the Yadav vote.
Yadavs account for over 12% of the state’s population. Together with Muslims, who constitute over 16% of population, this OBC caste is credited to have created a social revolution that ruled the state for one-and-a-half decades and has occupied the main opposition space in Bihar’s politics for last decade.
Although he was dethroned in 2005, Lalu Prasad, the man who led the new politics in Bihar, remained a key player because his core constituency – the co-called M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) factor – was intact. But in last year's Lok Sabha elections, the M-Y factor appeared to be losing traction as the Yadav vote splintered, a significant chunk of it shifting to the BJP. Muslims, however, seemed to retain their faith in his party.
Last chance
Observers feel that the forthcoming assembly elections in Bihar offer Lalu Prasad one more opportunity – perhaps his last – to regain lost ground and reclaim his party’s image as the main bulwark against the saffron surge.
From the point of view of Muslims, allegiance to Lalu Prasad’s RJD would make sense only if a significant chunk of OBCs – primarily Yadav voters – back the party. If Lalu Prasad fails to prevent retain the Yadav vote in the assembly polls, Muslims are unlikely to see any reason to continue their decades-old allegiance to the RJD.
But what happens to the BJP if Lalu Prasad delivers the Yadavs? A complete consolidation of the “Y” factor may rock the BJP, which hopes to repeat its Lok Sabha performance with the help of this OBC caste.
Party insiders have already started talking about fielding 40 to 45 Yadav candidates on the BJP ticket. The saffron party is likely to field candidates in 170-180 seats out of the total 243 seats, leaving the rest for its allies. In the previous assembly election of 2010, which it fought in alliance with the JD (U), the BJP had fielded only six candidates belonging to Yadav caste out of the total 102 seats it contested in the state.
Many faces
Besides, the BJP already has a strong pack of Yadav leaders, prominent among them being Leader of the Opposition in the assembly, Nand Kishore Yadav, Union Minister Ram Kripal Yadav and MP Hukumdev Narayan Yadav. Nand Kishore Yadav, who leaves no opportunity to talk of his “tea vendor background”, apparently as an indication that he is indeed in the race to be the party’s chief ministerial candidate, is certainly the most high profile Yadav face of the BJP in Bihar. The state unit of the BJP is not shying away from emphasising the surname of party official in charge of Bihar, Rajya Sabha member Bhupendra Yadav, even though he hails from Rajasthan and has nothing in common with Yadavs of Bihar.
Moreover, the backing that the BJP has extended to Pappu Yadav, the expelled RJD leader who has formed his own Jan Adhikar Party and who is believed to have considerable influence in Madhepura district and parts of North Bihar, is also guided by the sole aim of preventing Lalu Prasad from consolidating the Yadav vote.
A victory in Bihar would give a massive boost to the BJP’s confidence, which has sagged ever since it suffered a rout in the assembly elections in Delhi in February, and restore the aura of invincibility that it had gained after the Lok Sabha polls. Bihar, therefore, is crucial. So, perhaps, are the Yadavs.
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Yadavs account for over 12% of the state’s population. Together with Muslims, who constitute over 16% of population, this OBC caste is credited to have created a social revolution that ruled the state for one-and-a-half decades and has occupied the main opposition space in Bihar’s politics for last decade.
Although he was dethroned in 2005, Lalu Prasad, the man who led the new politics in Bihar, remained a key player because his core constituency – the co-called M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) factor – was intact. But in last year's Lok Sabha elections, the M-Y factor appeared to be losing traction as the Yadav vote splintered, a significant chunk of it shifting to the BJP. Muslims, however, seemed to retain their faith in his party.
Last chance
Observers feel that the forthcoming assembly elections in Bihar offer Lalu Prasad one more opportunity – perhaps his last – to regain lost ground and reclaim his party’s image as the main bulwark against the saffron surge.
From the point of view of Muslims, allegiance to Lalu Prasad’s RJD would make sense only if a significant chunk of OBCs – primarily Yadav voters – back the party. If Lalu Prasad fails to prevent retain the Yadav vote in the assembly polls, Muslims are unlikely to see any reason to continue their decades-old allegiance to the RJD.
But what happens to the BJP if Lalu Prasad delivers the Yadavs? A complete consolidation of the “Y” factor may rock the BJP, which hopes to repeat its Lok Sabha performance with the help of this OBC caste.
Party insiders have already started talking about fielding 40 to 45 Yadav candidates on the BJP ticket. The saffron party is likely to field candidates in 170-180 seats out of the total 243 seats, leaving the rest for its allies. In the previous assembly election of 2010, which it fought in alliance with the JD (U), the BJP had fielded only six candidates belonging to Yadav caste out of the total 102 seats it contested in the state.
Many faces
Besides, the BJP already has a strong pack of Yadav leaders, prominent among them being Leader of the Opposition in the assembly, Nand Kishore Yadav, Union Minister Ram Kripal Yadav and MP Hukumdev Narayan Yadav. Nand Kishore Yadav, who leaves no opportunity to talk of his “tea vendor background”, apparently as an indication that he is indeed in the race to be the party’s chief ministerial candidate, is certainly the most high profile Yadav face of the BJP in Bihar. The state unit of the BJP is not shying away from emphasising the surname of party official in charge of Bihar, Rajya Sabha member Bhupendra Yadav, even though he hails from Rajasthan and has nothing in common with Yadavs of Bihar.
Moreover, the backing that the BJP has extended to Pappu Yadav, the expelled RJD leader who has formed his own Jan Adhikar Party and who is believed to have considerable influence in Madhepura district and parts of North Bihar, is also guided by the sole aim of preventing Lalu Prasad from consolidating the Yadav vote.
A victory in Bihar would give a massive boost to the BJP’s confidence, which has sagged ever since it suffered a rout in the assembly elections in Delhi in February, and restore the aura of invincibility that it had gained after the Lok Sabha polls. Bihar, therefore, is crucial. So, perhaps, are the Yadavs.