Dr Thomas Stocker, a professor of climate and environmental physics in the University of Berne, is running to succeed Dr RK Pachauri as the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change after the Indian scientist resigned abruptly following a sexual harassment complaint. Stocker is pitted against scientists from the US, Belgium, South Korea and Austria, all of whom are campaigning hard across 195 countries for this prestigious post. The last time the IPCC chair was up for grabs was in 2001 when the issue of climate change was not so politicised.
Here's how he sees his chances.
Rashme Sehgal: How stiff is the contest for the chair of IPCC going to be?
Thomas Stocker: We are five candidates in the fray. As a nation, Switzerland is deeply committed to consensus and I think people around the globe appreciate that. As part of the lead up to the election being held next month in Croatia. I will have travelled to 40 countries. In the subcontinent, I will have travelled to Sri Lanka, Bangla Desh, India and will be visiting Pakistan next.
I would like to point out that I have 30 years of scientific experience at the highest level in this field. I have been working with the IPCC for the last 17 years, and for the last seven years I have been the Co-Chair of Working Group 1 for the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report.
RS: Do you see any break through being achieved in the crucial climate change meet being held in Paris in December?
TS: I remain moderately optimistic that we will arrive at a legally binding agreement. Never before have policy makers been provided with such details of the impact of climate change as also the options available to them. Business leaders and moral leaders have spoken very clearly on the threat of climate change. Pope Francis and several Muslim leaders have warned against it.
RS: But will we succeed in reducing global warming. Is the two degree Centigrade target possible?
TS: It is an extremely ambitious target especially since since there have been record breaking emissions world wide and this makes it difficult to remain on track. We now have a limited carbon budget. We have already exhausted two-thirds of our budget in the last 250 years. We have one-third of the budget left, which is expected to be consumed in the next 25 years. Aggressive reduction of emission rates is the only way we can achieve this two degree C target.
Today we are following not only a top-down target approach to achieve this goal but we a bottom-up approach as well. There are the INDC [Intended Nationally Determined Contributions], which put the responsibility of giving a declaration of commitment to each country.
The US and China have signed an agreement to limit carbon emissions. The G7 nations have given a long-term declaration [to stop fossil use] and the French have put passed a new legislation to cut fossil fuel and nuclear energy use. This nurtures my hope that something positive will emerge from [the Paris meeting].
RS: I must emphasise that India remains one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. The question is how do we balance rapid economic growth and yet keep carbon emissions low ?
TS: The economies of the poorest countries are in transition and they will be hit by a variety of impacts of climate change. India and Bangladesh are amongst these nations. Removal of poverty and economic development are top priority but there is no law of nature that connects irrevocably the consumption of fossil fuel with development. We are talking about the need to have an industrial revolution that will allow us to make a transition to a low carbon energy system and then to a zero-energy system.
We have been witness to three revolutions – mechanisation, electrification and digitisation – which saw the creation of new wealth, new products, new jobs. There is no reason to doubt that there will be a fourth revolution. We must take this as an opportunity for humankind to develop new products, use fuel in a more efficient way and develop machinery that is fully dependent on renewable energy. This is the first time that we are predicting such a revolution.
The IPCC has delivered a document which very clearly provides details of all aspects of our earth systems and how they are changing. The large-scale impact on the water cycle is creating extreme weather events. In India this is already happening. This will also result in ocean acidification, sea level rise and increased drought conditions.
RS: In India, we are extremely concerned about the El Nino and its impact on the monsoon?
TS: The El Nino offers a great challenge to climate research especially on the issue of its variability at the regional levels. Unfortunately, science has not evolved to the extent that we can make robust predictions on this. Scientists do not know whether increased warming will make the El Nino effect become more intense. Also, will the monsoon become more intense as it become warmer. This knowledge required to improve our adaptation levels.
RS: If you get elected, you will be succeeding Dr R Pachauri. What do you feel has been his chief contribution?
TS: Pachauri has been chair for over 12 years. Two reports were brought out under him. The fifth assessment report had over 1,000 scientists working on it and the production of the synthesis report came together directly under Dr Pachauri’s leadership. It is this synthesis report which has a profound effect on climate negotiations. The negotiating countries are the primary customer for this report.
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Here's how he sees his chances.
Rashme Sehgal: How stiff is the contest for the chair of IPCC going to be?
Thomas Stocker: We are five candidates in the fray. As a nation, Switzerland is deeply committed to consensus and I think people around the globe appreciate that. As part of the lead up to the election being held next month in Croatia. I will have travelled to 40 countries. In the subcontinent, I will have travelled to Sri Lanka, Bangla Desh, India and will be visiting Pakistan next.
I would like to point out that I have 30 years of scientific experience at the highest level in this field. I have been working with the IPCC for the last 17 years, and for the last seven years I have been the Co-Chair of Working Group 1 for the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report.
RS: Do you see any break through being achieved in the crucial climate change meet being held in Paris in December?
TS: I remain moderately optimistic that we will arrive at a legally binding agreement. Never before have policy makers been provided with such details of the impact of climate change as also the options available to them. Business leaders and moral leaders have spoken very clearly on the threat of climate change. Pope Francis and several Muslim leaders have warned against it.
RS: But will we succeed in reducing global warming. Is the two degree Centigrade target possible?
TS: It is an extremely ambitious target especially since since there have been record breaking emissions world wide and this makes it difficult to remain on track. We now have a limited carbon budget. We have already exhausted two-thirds of our budget in the last 250 years. We have one-third of the budget left, which is expected to be consumed in the next 25 years. Aggressive reduction of emission rates is the only way we can achieve this two degree C target.
Today we are following not only a top-down target approach to achieve this goal but we a bottom-up approach as well. There are the INDC [Intended Nationally Determined Contributions], which put the responsibility of giving a declaration of commitment to each country.
The US and China have signed an agreement to limit carbon emissions. The G7 nations have given a long-term declaration [to stop fossil use] and the French have put passed a new legislation to cut fossil fuel and nuclear energy use. This nurtures my hope that something positive will emerge from [the Paris meeting].
RS: I must emphasise that India remains one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. The question is how do we balance rapid economic growth and yet keep carbon emissions low ?
TS: The economies of the poorest countries are in transition and they will be hit by a variety of impacts of climate change. India and Bangladesh are amongst these nations. Removal of poverty and economic development are top priority but there is no law of nature that connects irrevocably the consumption of fossil fuel with development. We are talking about the need to have an industrial revolution that will allow us to make a transition to a low carbon energy system and then to a zero-energy system.
We have been witness to three revolutions – mechanisation, electrification and digitisation – which saw the creation of new wealth, new products, new jobs. There is no reason to doubt that there will be a fourth revolution. We must take this as an opportunity for humankind to develop new products, use fuel in a more efficient way and develop machinery that is fully dependent on renewable energy. This is the first time that we are predicting such a revolution.
The IPCC has delivered a document which very clearly provides details of all aspects of our earth systems and how they are changing. The large-scale impact on the water cycle is creating extreme weather events. In India this is already happening. This will also result in ocean acidification, sea level rise and increased drought conditions.
RS: In India, we are extremely concerned about the El Nino and its impact on the monsoon?
TS: The El Nino offers a great challenge to climate research especially on the issue of its variability at the regional levels. Unfortunately, science has not evolved to the extent that we can make robust predictions on this. Scientists do not know whether increased warming will make the El Nino effect become more intense. Also, will the monsoon become more intense as it become warmer. This knowledge required to improve our adaptation levels.
RS: If you get elected, you will be succeeding Dr R Pachauri. What do you feel has been his chief contribution?
TS: Pachauri has been chair for over 12 years. Two reports were brought out under him. The fifth assessment report had over 1,000 scientists working on it and the production of the synthesis report came together directly under Dr Pachauri’s leadership. It is this synthesis report which has a profound effect on climate negotiations. The negotiating countries are the primary customer for this report.