The Oommen Chandy government in Kerala got a breather with Finance Minister KM Mani finally tendering his resignation on Tuesday.

The 82-year-old leader, whose Kerala Congress(M) has eight MLAs, had considered withdrawing support to the United Democratic Front government when pressure mounted on him from Congress that heads the coalition and its allies to quit in the wake of the adverse remarks against him from the High Court in the bar bribery case.

This would have brought down the government that survives on a wafer thin majority of just three MLAs in the 140-member Assembly. But the Congress managed to put pressure on Mani by ensuring the continued support of a three-member group led by Water Resources Minister PJ Joseph in his party.

Mani, fearing that some other MLAs in his camp could follow suit, backed off from his threat and extended "unreserved" support to the government that has barely six more months to go to complete its five-year term.

Conspiracy theories

This, however, does not mean smooth sailing for the government. Mani's supporters have already started sounding veiled threats to those responsible for the downfall of their leader. Many of them believe that a section in the Congress trapped him to torpedo an alleged move by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) last year to bring the party into the opposition Left Democratic Front by giving him the chief ministership.

The controversy had erupted when Kerala Bar Hotel Association working president, Biju Ramesh, revealed casually during a television interview that Mani had demanded a bribe of Rs 5 crore and received Rs 1 crore for facilitating the renewal of licenses of 418 bars closed since April 1.

Ramesh denies any force on him from any quarters but believes that the possibility of a CPI(M) coup may have prompted the government to act swiftly on his allegation and file a first information report against the senior-most minister in the government. However, by the time the CPI(M) dropped the move, things had gone out of the hands of both Mani and the government.

The Vigilance and Anti-Corruption Bureau superintendent of police S Sukesan, who took over the investigation following a quick verification of the allegations, made out a case that the vigilance court and the high court have accepted despite objections from the agency’s director Vincent M Paul.

Even though the Kerala Congress (M) had set up a committee to probe the conspiracy against its leader, its report was never made public, mainly because of the unstinted backing Mani got subsequently from Chief Minister Oommen Chandy and Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala.

Wider probe

Now that Mani has been forced to step down, the report may find its way to the media. The threats from Mani’s supporters imply there's even more to it. The opposition has already started raising questions about the investigation into Biju’s other allegation that Excise Minister K Babu had also received a bribe of Rs 10 core.

Unlike the one against Mani, the vigilance and anti-corruption bureau had closed the case, after a quick verification citing lack of evidence to back the charge. Biju had also said that the Hotel and Bar Association had mobilised Rs 20 crores from its members to deal with the closure of bars. The opposition LDF claims that the amount may have gone into the pockets of many other ministers, including the chief minister. Interestingly, Sukesan’s investigation showed that the KBHA had not accounted for the amounts collected from the members in its cash books. Vigilance court judge John K Illikkadan, who has ordered a further probe in the case, has directed the investigating officer to track these amounts.

With Mani gone, the opposition believes that the trail will now turn towards the other ministers. They allege that the chief minister and home minister had shielded Mani to prevent this. Now that Mani has been wounded, the opposition feels that his supporters will spill the beans.

This will be highly damaging for the ruling UDF when it goes to the people in April-May next for another mandate. Many in the coalition believe that one of the major factors behind the drubbing they received in the local body elections was the bar bribery scam. Will it sink it in the Assembly elections is the big question before them now.