Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath could come to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s rescue in Gujarat. Looking to gain a head-start in Gujarat, which goes to polls later this year, the Bharatiya Janata Party is planning a high-voltage campaign to get Adityanath elected to the Uttar Pradesh’s Legislative Assembly – one that will grab headlines and resonate with its voters in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state as well.
According to party officials, the BJP was earlier planning to get Adityanath into the Legislative Council or the upper house of the bicameral state legislature, which is usually a low-key affair as members are elected by MLAs. However, with an eye on Gujarat, the leadership is now contemplating the bye-poll route to get him voted into the Legislative Assembly, members to which are elected by citizens through the ballot, as it gives an opportunity for massive campaigning.
Adityanath, a five-term MP from Gorakhpur Lok Sabha constituency, is expected to contest from Gorakhpur city Assembly seat, which is currently represented by his protégé Radha Mohan Das Agrawal.
Party officials said BJP President Amit Shah has already started working on a plan to ensure that the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister’s bid to enter the state Assembly becomes one of the most watched bye-elections in recent times.
Polarisation potential
The party expects that a rabble-rousing election campaign run by Adityanath – and a massive victory in the by-election – would set the tone for the Assembly polls in Gujarat, strike a chord with its supporters there and also boost the party’s confidence stronger before the state polls. Gujarat is a BJP stronghold but its electoral fortunes there have been dependent on the politics of polarisation.
Gujarat is scheduled to go to polls in November. The saffron party has held power in the state for two decades now – 12 years of which were under Modi – and is believed to have the upper hand in the coming elections, but party’s state unit is beset with serious infighting.
Additionally, the Patidars or Patel caste, who constitute about a fourth of the total population of Gujarat, have been disillusioned with the party after it responded to the community’s 2015 stir demanding reservations and Other Backward Caste status with a violent crackdown. Gujarat was also where the Dalits had launched a massive agitation in 2016 to protest against vigilante attacks on the scheduled caste in the name of cow protection.
Presidential polls
Adityanath was sworn in as the state chief minister on March 19 after the BJP’s stunning victory in the Assembly election in UP and has to enter the state legislature within six months of his swearing in. Along with Adityanath, Uttar Pradesh’s Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya and Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar are also Lok Sabha members and will have to resign from the Parliament and join the state legislatures.
The three BJP leaders are expected to step down as MPs after the presidential election, which is due in July, as the saffron party is just short of the majority mark in the electoral college that elects the country’s president. The electoral college comprises members of the Parliament and the state legislatures, but the value of an MPs vote is substantially higher.
If the three leaders wait for the presidential elections to step down, the bye-poll for Adityanath is likely to take place in September, around the time the party would also launch a full-blown campaign in Gujarat.
For the BJP, retaining Gujarat is essential. A defeat in Modi’s home state could resonate beyond the boundaries of the saffron fortress and affect the BJP’s chances in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections as well.
