Economic Survey: Arvind Subramanian says impacts of note ban, GST faded, highlights agenda for 2018
In his assessment report, the chief economic adviser said the global rise in oil prices could affect India’s growth and should be monitored.
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India’s Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian presented the Economic Survey on Monday, on the first day of the Budget Session. The Economic Survey is an annual report written by the chief economic adviser that lays out the state of the country’s economy days before the finance minister introduces the Budget.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley tabled the first volume of the Economic Survey for 2017-’18 in the Lok Sabha, three days ahead of the Union Budget.
Subramanian’s assessment this year said the Indian economy is likely to grow at 6.75% in 2017-’18 and accelerate to 7% to 7.5% in 2018-’19. While presenting the Economic Survey, he explained why he believes the Indian economy decoupled from the global economy. He noted that the Goods and Services Tax and demonetisation had both affected growth, but emphasised that their impacts had faded.
Here’s how Subramanian presented the Economic Survey:
#economicsurvey18 brings out 10 new facts on Indian economy https://t.co/c8k12tZPvV #EconomicSurvey2018 pic.twitter.com/e9x5P3mDH6
— PIB India (@PIB_India) January 29, 2018
2.30 pm: India got its sovereign rating upgraded for the first time in 14 years, Subramanian says.
For the first time in India’s history, five states - Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Telangana - account for 70% of India’s exports: #economicsurvey18 https://t.co/Lm8t6fJ2DJ #EconomicSurvey2018
— PIB India (@PIB_India) January 29, 2018
2.20 pm: He says that rising oil prices are a challenge for the economy.
2.15 pm: Subramanian begins to take questions from reporters at the press conference.
2.12 pm: “The GST Council has shown that cooperative federalism can really work,” he says. He says the two are a “how-to of reform going forward”. “We’ve moved, over last 50 to 60 years, from crony socialism to stigmatised capitalism,” he says.
LIVE: Our understanding of the new economy is going to be increased by an order of magnitude, thanks to #GST: CEA @arvindsubraman #EconomicSurvey2018 https://t.co/VlxLfGeIF4 pic.twitter.com/N5LQY24fMq
— PIB India (@PIB_India) January 29, 2018
2.10 pm: India’s investment slowdown is of the balance sheet type, and thus more difficult to reverse,” he says. “The government’s urgent steps to tackle the twin balance sheet challenge and improving the ease of doing business will reignite animal spirits.”
As India emerges as one of world’s largest economies, it needs to gradually move from being a net consumer of knowledge to becoming a net producer: #EconomicSurvey2018 https://t.co/VlxLfGeIF4 pic.twitter.com/FWqThpLaLU
— PIB India (@PIB_India) January 29, 2018
2.08 pm: He points out the new chapter on gender in the Economic Survey and the first ever chapters on science and technology and pendency in the judiciary in the document.
2.07 pm: In his assessment, the chief economic adviser says India must pay attention to climate change, backlash from globalisation, structural transformation and human capital regression.
LIVE: We are still very far from the global human capital frontier - food for reflection - CEA @arvindsubraman #EconomicSurvey2018 https://t.co/VlxLfFX7Nw pic.twitter.com/i5uYFE66pB
— PIB India (@PIB_India) January 29, 2018
2.05 pm: Subramanian says there has been a large increase in voluntary compliance under GST. “About 36% of total GST filers, eligible for composition scheme or could have opted out from GST [below GST threshold], filed regular GST returns in first five months,” he says.
LIVE: GST revenue has grown at about 12%; for a transformative change like #GST, it is providing important promising evidence: CEA @arvindsubraman https://t.co/VlxLfGeIF4 #EconomicSurvey2018 pic.twitter.com/bA30wUrgfA
— PIB India (@PIB_India) January 29, 2018
2.02 pm: Markets are misinterpreting the government’s borrowing, he says. “Borrowing Rs 40,000 crore does not reflect the underlying deficit.”
Are markets misunderstanding government borrowing? About Rs 40,000 crores of general government’s 2017-18 borrowing does not reflect underlying deficits (Box 8, Ch. 1., Vol. 1) #economicsurvey18 https://t.co/VAfz77JvGp pic.twitter.com/x9qmEAO7wm
— arvind subramanian (@arvindsubraman) January 29, 2018
India’s stock market boom different from U.S.: better profit expectations, large portfolio allocation away from gold and real estate into stocks & higher interest rates; warrants heightened vigilance (Ch 1, Box 9) #economicsurvey18 https://t.co/VAfz77JvGp pic.twitter.com/oeXAT6MIBr
— arvind subramanian (@arvindsubraman) January 29, 2018
2.01 pm: Subramanian says there was a rise in registered direct and indirect taxpayers.
“There has been a 50% increase in unique indirect taxpayers under the GST vis-a-vis the pre-GST system and an addition of about 1.8 million individual income tax filers since Nov 2016,” the Economic Survey says.
2 pm: In the government’s policy agenda for the year ahead, Subramanian highlights the need to support agriculture, stabilise GST, complete balance sheet actions, finish privatising Air India, head off macro-economic pressures and tackle oil prices, Subramanian says in the Economic Survey presentation.
What is the agenda for the road ahead? Here is what the #EconomicSurvey2018 has to say
— PIB India (@PIB_India) January 29, 2018
- LIVE From the presser by CEA @arvindsubraman https://t.co/VlxLfGeIF4 pic.twitter.com/ZYn3xsH3L1
1.57 pm: Markets are record levels, but interest rates have surged, which raise concerns, he says.
GST data provides first glimpse into states’ international exports. States that export more internationally are more prosperous. #economicsurvey18 https://t.co/5qf2Hu6Lfx pic.twitter.com/OF898qZUwW
— arvind subramanian (@arvindsubraman) January 29, 2018
1.57 pm: The economist warns of the impact of oil prices on India’s GDP, and says we must keep a close eye on it.
1.55 pm: Export growth could be greater and private investment could also grow if Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code proceedings progress well, Subramanian says.
1.54 pm: Subramanian points to the Survey and says the impacts of demonetisation and GST had dissipated because of government measures.
1.53 pm: Oil prices also caused the Indian economy to decouple from the world economy, Subramanian says.
1.52 pm: Export and import both decelerated sharply, as did the services sector, the chief economic adviser says, once again highlighting the impact of the GST and demonetisation.
1.50 pm: In order to understand whats going to happen next year, we need to understand what happened in the last four to six quarters, he says. He explains why the Indian economy decoupled from the rest of the world and mentions GST and demonetisation as factors.
1.47 pm: Subramanian mentions the transformative Goods and Services Tax launched in July 2017.
1.46 pm: He says the Survey gives an analytical review of the economy.
1.45 pm: Arvind Subramanian begins a press conference to present the Economic Survey 2018.
1.30 pm: The economic outlook for the upcoming financial year 2018-’19 will be “determined by economic policy in the run-up to the next national election”, the Economic Survey says. “If macro-economic stability is kept under control, the ongoing reforms are stabilised, and the world economy remains buoyant as today, growth could start recovering towards its medium term economic potential of at least 8%,” the survey says.
1.25 pm: The Economic Survey notes that “stabilising” the GST, solving the twin-balance-sheet problem of Indian banks, privatising Air India and “staving off threats to macro-economic stability” should be on the agenda for 2018-’19.
The GST collections slipped to their lowest in November as rates were cut on several goods to make the new single tax regime more acceptable.
12.45 pm: Arun Jaitley tables Economic Survey 2018 in Lok Sabha.