Private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday said the country will see below normal rainfall this year. Monsoon is likely to make onset over Kerala on June 4, it added.

Monsoon usually arrives on the southern tip of Kerala around June 1 and retreat from Rajasthan by September.

Skymet said monsoon will be “below normal” in the country with a Long Period Average of 93% and an error margin of five percent. The Long Period Average is the average rainfall received by the country as a whole during the southwest monsoon, from June to September between the years 1951 and 2000, and is pegged at 89 cm.

“Monsoon 2019 seems to make a timely onset,” the forecaster said. “However, weather models are indicating towards a weak onset over the Indian subcontinent, resulting in a sluggish start to Monsoon 2019.”

Managing Director of Skymet Jatin Singh said the four regions in the country will witness lesser than normal rainfall. “East and Northeast India and central parts will be poorer than Northwest India and South Peninsula,” Singh said. “Onset of monsoon will be around June 4. It seems that initial advancement of monsoon over Peninsular India is going to be slow.”

This year the monsoon is also beginning under the shadow of El Niño, which marks the warming of the sea surface on the Pacific Ocean. The El Niño phenomenon affects rainfall patterns, and has caused droughts and floods in the past.

Last month, the India Meteorological Department had said India is likely to see a “near normal” southwest monsoon this year.