In the high-stakes game of bluff being played by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, the latter holds a strong hand. It has 63 MLAs to offer the BJP, which needs them to reach the majority mark in the house. In their absence, the new Devendra Fadnavis government will remain a minority.
The problem is, the BJP’s hand is stronger. With 122 MLAs, just 23 short of the half-way mark, it can afford to be sanguine, more so since the Nationalist Congress Party has openly said it would support them in a trust vote.
Taking help from Sharad Pawar’s NCP would be fraught with risk, since it would make a mockery of the BJP’s pre-election promise to go after corrupt elements ‒ many a former NCP minister is facing serious graft charges ‒ but that is a risk the BJP’s bosses are ready to take. The BJP also knows that the Shiv Sena would be foolish to try and topple the government, since there would be no alternative combination that can take its place.
Possible defections
Most of all, it is the Sena’s own MLAs who are getting restive about missing this opportunity to get back into power in the state after 15 years. Another five years in the opposition would truly frustrate them and there is a good chance some of them will defect. This has the forced Sena chief to issue threats but at the same time keep a door open for a compromise.
The bigger worry for Uddhav Thackeray is that whether they are partners or not, the BJP will now do everything in its power to cut the Shiv Sena to size. The two parties may share the Hindutva ideology and occupy the right-wing space, but instead of making them natural allies, it puts them on the road to conflict, since both compete for the same constituency.
The BJP, despite getting fewer seats in the seat-sharing arrangement between the two, has been bettering its strike rate, while the Sena has not grown beyond its traditional bastions of Mumbai, Thane, Pune and Konkan. It has suffered several blows, with senior leaders leaving it at regular intervals and is finding it difficult to reach out to newer voters.
Self-limiting platform
The Marathi manoos platform in cosmopolitan Mumbai can be self-limiting. Even among Maharashtrians, many of whom would have been traditional supporters of the Sena and its chief Bal Thackeray, the younger generation is not enamoured of the Sena’s nativism, which keeps talking about heritage and culture but pays almost no attention to bread-and-butter issues like jobs. Its record in Mumbai, where it has controlled the rich Municipal Corporation for over 25 years, remains shoddy.
In the election campaign, the BJP, under Narendra Modi, focused on growth, infrastructure, employment opportunities while Uddhav Thackeray invoked Marathi pride and honour. The results showed which appealed to the voters more. Whether the two come together or not, the BJP will continue with its “Hindutva plus” strategy and will eventually reduce the Sena to a party with a loyal but dwindling party in its old, traditional bastions. Uddhav Thackeray knows that, but there is little he can do.
Beyond slogans
One way out would be to broad-base the Sena’s outreach by showing that it too believes in economic growth and better governance, but it will have to go beyond mere slogans. If the two come together, the stage will be set for a clash, inside and outside the assembly.
With 63 MLAs, the Sena will be a formidable opposition and will be able to take on the government, which will be vulnerable because of its reliance on the NCP. The BJP wants to avoid that as far as possible ‒ it will then have to win over some Sena MLAs to its side, a risky move.
Instead, the BJP would rather take the Sena in but not give it too many lucrative ministries. That would keep the party locked into a coalition but without handing it too much power. Amit Shah and Uddhav Thackeray are not enamoured of each other and Narendra Modi has never had time for Uddhav Thackeray. But if they want the best of an awkward situation, the only way out will be to join up and try and make a difficult relationship work.
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The problem is, the BJP’s hand is stronger. With 122 MLAs, just 23 short of the half-way mark, it can afford to be sanguine, more so since the Nationalist Congress Party has openly said it would support them in a trust vote.
Taking help from Sharad Pawar’s NCP would be fraught with risk, since it would make a mockery of the BJP’s pre-election promise to go after corrupt elements ‒ many a former NCP minister is facing serious graft charges ‒ but that is a risk the BJP’s bosses are ready to take. The BJP also knows that the Shiv Sena would be foolish to try and topple the government, since there would be no alternative combination that can take its place.
Possible defections
Most of all, it is the Sena’s own MLAs who are getting restive about missing this opportunity to get back into power in the state after 15 years. Another five years in the opposition would truly frustrate them and there is a good chance some of them will defect. This has the forced Sena chief to issue threats but at the same time keep a door open for a compromise.
The bigger worry for Uddhav Thackeray is that whether they are partners or not, the BJP will now do everything in its power to cut the Shiv Sena to size. The two parties may share the Hindutva ideology and occupy the right-wing space, but instead of making them natural allies, it puts them on the road to conflict, since both compete for the same constituency.
The BJP, despite getting fewer seats in the seat-sharing arrangement between the two, has been bettering its strike rate, while the Sena has not grown beyond its traditional bastions of Mumbai, Thane, Pune and Konkan. It has suffered several blows, with senior leaders leaving it at regular intervals and is finding it difficult to reach out to newer voters.
Self-limiting platform
The Marathi manoos platform in cosmopolitan Mumbai can be self-limiting. Even among Maharashtrians, many of whom would have been traditional supporters of the Sena and its chief Bal Thackeray, the younger generation is not enamoured of the Sena’s nativism, which keeps talking about heritage and culture but pays almost no attention to bread-and-butter issues like jobs. Its record in Mumbai, where it has controlled the rich Municipal Corporation for over 25 years, remains shoddy.
In the election campaign, the BJP, under Narendra Modi, focused on growth, infrastructure, employment opportunities while Uddhav Thackeray invoked Marathi pride and honour. The results showed which appealed to the voters more. Whether the two come together or not, the BJP will continue with its “Hindutva plus” strategy and will eventually reduce the Sena to a party with a loyal but dwindling party in its old, traditional bastions. Uddhav Thackeray knows that, but there is little he can do.
Beyond slogans
One way out would be to broad-base the Sena’s outreach by showing that it too believes in economic growth and better governance, but it will have to go beyond mere slogans. If the two come together, the stage will be set for a clash, inside and outside the assembly.
With 63 MLAs, the Sena will be a formidable opposition and will be able to take on the government, which will be vulnerable because of its reliance on the NCP. The BJP wants to avoid that as far as possible ‒ it will then have to win over some Sena MLAs to its side, a risky move.
Instead, the BJP would rather take the Sena in but not give it too many lucrative ministries. That would keep the party locked into a coalition but without handing it too much power. Amit Shah and Uddhav Thackeray are not enamoured of each other and Narendra Modi has never had time for Uddhav Thackeray. But if they want the best of an awkward situation, the only way out will be to join up and try and make a difficult relationship work.