It's quite possible that a brief amount of time behind bars and being temporarily convicted will do for former Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa what ordinary politicking might not have done: help her beat any little spark of anti-incumbency. Consider the words that "Amma", who will be sworn in again as the chief minister next week, used when she was acquitted by the Karnataka High Court of all corruption charges on Monday.
"It is the defeat of the DMK conspiracy to destroy me and AIADMK. The DMK had conspired to defame and malign my legacy and the legacy of my mentor, MGR," Jayalalithaa said, after the High Court concluded that allegations of disproportionate assets in a case from the 1990s were not serious enought o warrant a corruption conviction. "It gives me immense satisfaction and has removed the slander cast on me out of political vendetta. The verdict has shown I have not committed any wrong. It has helped me emerge as gold further refined by fire."
Do those sound like the words of a politician who has lorded over a state for four years now, building up what seems like an unassailable lead? Talk of a Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam "conspiracy" and "vendetta" could almost make you forget that it is Jayalalithaa's All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam that has tightened the screws on Tamil Nadu politics over the last year, as its rivals in the state struggle to find their platforms.
Indeed, Jayalalithaa's brief time away from active politics – even though current Chief Minister O Panneerselvam's tenure has been in name only – seems to have given her the perfect launching pad to move into poll mood, with Tamil Nadu expected to have assembly elections next year. There have even been suggestions that Jayalalithaa might call for early polls to capitalise on the sympathy and vindication of being acquitted.
If she did so, she'd be starting off with a huge advantage.
Take the last two elections in the state. One is very local: the Srirangam bypoll that was necessitated after Jayalalithaa's conviction meant she was disqualified from holding public office.
While that level of dominance for the AIADMK might be expected for a seat that would sympathise with the former and future chief minister, it reflects the huge advantage the party was able to build up during the Lok Sabha elections last year, when Jayalalithaa all but swept the state.
The AIADMK registered almost double the vote share of its arch-rival, and parent party, the DMK and picked off every single seat in the state but one. The win was so big that the AIADMK became the country's third largest party in the Lok Sabha, with 37 seats, right after the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress, beating out other "national" parties like the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party.
Now take a look at the seat share in the Tamil Nadu elections over the last decade, where again the AIADMK has been steadily growing.
A key point to note is that, even with that little fillip in 2006, when the DMK ended up with more seats, AIADMK actually continued to grow in vote share, although the spread of votes didn't work out in their favour that year.
Tamil Nadu does have a history of volatility with this, so past performance is no indicator of future gains. But considering the status of the DMK and the growing popularity of smaller parties, which works in favour of the largest party in a first-past-the-post system, can look forward to what's coming.
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"It is the defeat of the DMK conspiracy to destroy me and AIADMK. The DMK had conspired to defame and malign my legacy and the legacy of my mentor, MGR," Jayalalithaa said, after the High Court concluded that allegations of disproportionate assets in a case from the 1990s were not serious enought o warrant a corruption conviction. "It gives me immense satisfaction and has removed the slander cast on me out of political vendetta. The verdict has shown I have not committed any wrong. It has helped me emerge as gold further refined by fire."
Do those sound like the words of a politician who has lorded over a state for four years now, building up what seems like an unassailable lead? Talk of a Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam "conspiracy" and "vendetta" could almost make you forget that it is Jayalalithaa's All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam that has tightened the screws on Tamil Nadu politics over the last year, as its rivals in the state struggle to find their platforms.
Indeed, Jayalalithaa's brief time away from active politics – even though current Chief Minister O Panneerselvam's tenure has been in name only – seems to have given her the perfect launching pad to move into poll mood, with Tamil Nadu expected to have assembly elections next year. There have even been suggestions that Jayalalithaa might call for early polls to capitalise on the sympathy and vindication of being acquitted.
If she did so, she'd be starting off with a huge advantage.
Take the last two elections in the state. One is very local: the Srirangam bypoll that was necessitated after Jayalalithaa's conviction meant she was disqualified from holding public office.
While that level of dominance for the AIADMK might be expected for a seat that would sympathise with the former and future chief minister, it reflects the huge advantage the party was able to build up during the Lok Sabha elections last year, when Jayalalithaa all but swept the state.
The AIADMK registered almost double the vote share of its arch-rival, and parent party, the DMK and picked off every single seat in the state but one. The win was so big that the AIADMK became the country's third largest party in the Lok Sabha, with 37 seats, right after the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress, beating out other "national" parties like the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party.
Now take a look at the seat share in the Tamil Nadu elections over the last decade, where again the AIADMK has been steadily growing.
A key point to note is that, even with that little fillip in 2006, when the DMK ended up with more seats, AIADMK actually continued to grow in vote share, although the spread of votes didn't work out in their favour that year.
Tamil Nadu does have a history of volatility with this, so past performance is no indicator of future gains. But considering the status of the DMK and the growing popularity of smaller parties, which works in favour of the largest party in a first-past-the-post system, can look forward to what's coming.