The political landscape of Bangladesh has long been shaped by dynastic legacies and the gravitational pull of charismatic leaders. The recent emergence of the National Citizens Party, a student-led political formation, raises a compelling question: Can a party born out of a student movement, lacking an established political pedigree, truly become a dominant force in the country’s politics?
To answer this, we must examine the critical elements that drive political success in Bangladesh. The factors pose significant challenges to the National Citizens Party’s ambitions, making its rise to power an uphill battle. However, the political environment is also ripe for transformation, given the disenchantment with traditional parties and a growing appetite for reform among the younger generation.
A wasted momentum?
The National Citizens Party emerged from the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement and the National Citizens Committee, both of which played crucial roles in last year’s protests that led to the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina's government. Yet, the party’s formal launch came months after the height of the movement, raising concerns that it squandered its political momentum.
Revolutions are driven by emotion, and as famed political scientist Samuel P Huntington noted in Political Order in Changing Societies, "Revolutionary movements are most successful when they consolidate power before the fervor of the masses dissipates."
Had the National Citizens Party been formed immediately after the July-August uprising, it could have capitalised on the raw energy of the people, channeling it into a structured political movement. Instead, the delay has allowed competing political forces to reclaim lost ground, diminishing the party’s initial advantage.
Additionally, in the months following the protests, public focus has shifted toward deteriorating law and order, economic instability, governance concerns, and global crises, further diluting the impact of the movement that gave rise to the National Citizens Party. This delay has resulted in a loss of urgency, making it harder for the party to maintain relevance.
Where is the charisma?
Politics in Bangladesh is deeply personal. The country's most successful political movements have been spearheaded by leaders who commanded near-religious devotion. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Ziaur Rahman, Hussain Muhammad Ershad – these were not just politicians; they were symbols of their movements.
The National Citizens Party, by contrast, lacks a comparable figure. Its leadership structure is collegiate, with Nahid Islam as the convener and other members filling key positions. While this structure reflects an attempt at collective leadership, history suggests that movements without a singular, unifying leader rarely succeed.
Without a leader who can electrify the masses, the National Citizens Party risks becoming another faceless organisation lost in Bangladesh’s chaotic political arena.
Additionally, the party’s reliance on an intellectual and academic base, while beneficial in policy-making, does not necessarily translate to mass appeal. Successful political figures often possess a combination of personal charm, rhetorical skills, and an ability to connect with diverse demographics.
The National Citizens Party’s current leadership must find a way to embody this inspiration if they hope to transition from student activists to national leaders.
New voters equation
One factor that could work in favour of the newly formed political party in Bangladesh is the emergence of nearly four crore new voters over the past 16 years, a period marked by multiple voterless elections under the Awami League.
These young voters, disillusioned by the lack of democratic processes, might have been expected to form a potential base for an alternative political force. However, the reality is far more complex.
These new voters are scattered across the country, making it extremely difficult for any single party – especially one without established grassroots networks – to mobilise them effectively.
While they may collectively yearn for change, their geographical dispersion means they do not form a concentrated voting bloc capable of making a significant electoral impact.
Without a centralised structure to harness their collective power, their votes will likely remain fragmented, reducing their overall influence in the political process.
The new party may gain pockets of support among the youth, but without a mechanism to convert that support into a strategic advantage, it will struggle to make a meaningful difference.
The missing infrastructure
Bangladesh’s major parties – the BNP, the Awami League, and Jamaat-e-Islami – have extensive grassroots networks that stretch into the remotest villages. These networks are crucial for mobilising voters, influencing local politics, and ensuring electoral success. The National Citizens Party, despite its urban student base, lacks such an infrastructure.
History teaches us that no political party can sustain itself without a strong grassroots network. The Aam Aadmi Party in India, for example, found early success in Delhi but struggled to expand nationally due to its weak rural presence.
The National Citizens Party must recognise that mobilising students and urban activists is not enough. Without an extensive network of local organisers, it will struggle to convert enthusiasm into electoral victories. Building strong alliances with trade unions, farmers’ associations, and local organisations could provide the National Citizens Party with a much-needed foundation beyond the university campuses.
Can it break the dynastic grip?
One of the biggest hurdles facing the National Citizens Party is Bangladesh’s entrenched culture of dynastic politics. The Awami League is synonymous with the Sheikh Mujib family, while the BNP remains centered around the Zia family. In a political culture where legitimacy is often equated with family lineage, new parties struggle to gain traction.
Even outside Bangladesh, dynastic politics remains a formidable force. In India, the Nehru-Gandhi family has dominated the Congress Party for decades. In Pakistan, the Bhuttos and Sharifs continue to wield power. The challenge for the National Citizens Party is convincing voters that political legitimacy does not require a famous last name.
While the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government created a momentary crisis, it has not yet been sufficient to upend the dominance of established dynasties.
‘Second republic’ – a political gambit?
The National Citizens Party’s call for a “second republic” signals its intent to radically reshape Bangladesh’s political landscape. This vision includes drafting a new democratic constitution, eliminating corruption and nepotism, and strengthening national security.
While these goals are ambitious, radical political transformations are difficult to implement without significant institutional backing. As noted by historian Theda Skocpol, “Revolutions succeed not because of ideals alone, but because they control the machinery of the state.” Without control over major institutions – military, judiciary, bureaucracy – the National Citizens Party’s vision risks being more rhetorical than actionable.
Despite its challenges, the National Citizens Party is not necessarily doomed to irrelevance. Political history is full of movements that overcame initial skepticism. If the party can overcome all challenges, it might carve out a viable political space. Otherwise, it risks becoming another forgotten chapter in Bangladesh’s political narrative. As Nelson Mandela once said, “It always seems impossible until it is done.” The National Citizens Party must prove whether its vision is more than just an idea – or if it can truly redefine Bangladesh’s political future.
HM Nazmul Alam is an academic, journalist, and political analyst. Email: nazmulalam.rijohn@gmail.com.
This article was first published on Dhaka Tribune.
