No one is more relieved than Himachal's Virbhadra Singh about Harish Rawat's victory in Uttarakhand

Earlier this week, Congress leader Harish Rawat won a trust vote in the Uttarakhand assembly to return as chief minister following a spell of President’s rule. These political developments were being very closely watched in the neighbouring hill state of Himachal Pradesh, where the Congress-led government headed by Virbhadra Singh was apprehensive about the Bharatiya Janata Party-ruled central government making it its next target.

The Himachal Pradesh chief minister was preparing for the worst. The Enforcement Department and the Central Bureau of Investigation had registered cases against him in connection with money laundering, while he faces an inquiry by the Income Tax department over disproportionate assets.

Amid fears that he might be taken into custody for interrogation, which would be a first for a serving chief minister without being convicted, Virbhadra Singh had declared that he would continue to lead the state from behind bars.

Strong in numbers

The state unit of the Congress, which has its fair share of dissidents, had also passed a unanimous resolution in his support, in the wake of the BJP’s resolve for a “Congress-mukt Bharat”. After the Congress government in Arunachal Pradesh was dislodged and similar attempts were made in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh was believe to be the next natural target.

In line with its objective, the state unit of the BJP had recently submitted a memorandum to Governor Acharya Dev Vrat seeking the dismissal of the state government in light of the charges of corruption against the chief minister, which date back to his stint as Union Steel Minister in the United Progressive Alliance-2 government. The party had also demanded imposition of central rule till the next Assembly elections, which are due late next year.

Unlike in Uttarakhand, the BJP is not close to the majority mark in Himachal Pradesh, and was unlikely to facilitate split in the state unit of the Congress despite a section of disgruntled party leaders.

The state assembly has a total strength of 68 legislators. Virbhadra Singh currently enjoys support from the majority, as the Congress has 36 MLAs while four Independents are also in his corner. The BJP has only 27 legislators on its side.

Series of blunders

Following the Uttarakand trust vote, Virbhadara Singh said that the BJP would now think twice about unsettling his government, having burnt its fingers in the neighbouring state.

Just as it messed up in Uttarakhand, the Centre and its agencies have in the past too unwittingly given Virbhadra Singh a lifeline. In what could be described as a blunder, the ED conducted a raid at his official residence late last year even as he was stepping out of his residence for the marriage of his daughter at a temple in Shimla. Evidently, the intelligence agencies and the ED had not worked in tandem, and the ED officials who conducted the raid had no inkling of the marriage date.

Virbhadra Singh proceeded for the simple and low key marriage function, telling the raiding party that his residence would be at their disposal. He was also able to garner public sympathy, as all the local front pages the next morning contained the photograph of a weeping bride being escorted by Virbhadra Singh.

Tread with caution

Virbhdara Singh and BJP leader Prem Kumar Dhumal have been taking turns in the chief minister’s chair for nearly two decades now. There is bad blood between the two and they have instituted inquiries and cases against each other during their respective tenures. Dhumal, who remains the front-runner for the post from the BJP, was recently quoted as saying that the state may face early elections. Congress leaders had taken the comment to mean that the Virbhadra government may be dismissed. He had also indicated that some Congress leaders were in touch with his party, although political observers in the state feel that he was only trying to set the cat among the pigeons.

While the failed attempt to topple the Harish Rawat government in Uttarakhand has provided a much-needed breather to the Virbhadra Singh government next door, but it cannot afford to ignore the BJP’s threats.

Among the most vocal state leaders, who also enjoy much clout at the Centre, are Dhumal’s son Anurag Thakur, a former president of the BJP’s youth wing and Secretary of the Board of Cricket Control in India, and Union Health Minister JP Nadda.