It’s only after the results of the 2017 Uttar Pradesh election are out that we’ll know if the Bharatiya Janata Party managed to retain the support of the state’s Kurmis, who voted overwhelmingly for it in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. However, at the moment, there are enough signs that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has erred in picking his Kurmi mascot.
Modi inducted Anupriya Patel – the estranged daughter of Apna Dal matriarch Krishna Patel – into his council of ministers earlier this month. Ever since that induction, there has been a groundswell of support for Krishna Patel in the Apna Dal, the party she heads, which claims to represent Kurmis in Uttar Pradesh. This shows that the BJP is at considerable risk of losing this significant section of the Other Backward Classes in the hustings.
Kurmis had played a critical role in central and eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh in ensuring a landslide for the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
The wrong Kurmi leader?
“During the Lok Sabha elections, Apna Dal was in the forefront of mobilising Kurmi voters for the BJP,” said the Apna Dal’s state general secretary Pankaj Seth, who lives in the Raja Talab subdivision of Varanasi. “By creating a divide in the Apna Dal, Modi and Anupriya Patel have tried to weaken the struggle of backward sections in the state.”
Raja Talab, a Kurmi-dominated area and a stronghold of the Apna Dal, falls in the Sewapuri Assembly segment of Varanasi district.
Disquiet among Kurmi supporters of the Apna Dal in the region is considered the reason why most of them stayed away from a welcome function the BJP had organised on July 15 to mark Anupriya Patel’s first visit to the area after becoming a minister in the Modi government.
“Modi backstabbed us,” Apna Dal president Krishna Patel told Scroll.in. “By inducting Anupriya without consulting our party, the Prime Minister violated coalition dharma. That’s why we announced a separation from the BJP.”
The Apna Dal was founded in 1995 by Krishna’s husband Sone Lal Patel, who passed away in 2009. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the party won two seats. While Anupriya Patel has sided with the BJP, the other Apna Dal MP and the majority of the party’s office-bearers have stayed with Krishna Patel.
Among Other Backward Classes, Kurmis are numerically second only to Yadavs in Uttar Pradesh. Though present in almost all 403 Assembly seats of the state, Kurmi voters are numerically significant in central and eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh. In districts like Mirzapur, Sant Kabir Nagar, Sonbhadra, Bareilly, Jalaun, Varanasi, Fatehpur, Unnao, Pratapgarh, Kaushambi, Allahabad, Sitapur, Barabanki, Bahraich, Shrawasti, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar and Basti, the Kurmi voters account for 6%-11% of the total population.
Krishna Patel in demand
The churning that has begun among the state’s Kurmi voters after Modi’s Cabinet reshuffle has resulted in Krishna Patel gaining significantly in stature – a fact recognised by her rivals, too.
“It is true that most Kurmis sympathise with Krishna Patel,” said Surendra Patel, Samajwadi Party MLA from Sewapuri and state PWD minister. “After the death of Sone Lal Patel, Apna Dal lacked a face. Krishna was considered weak and Anupriya a conceited leader. But now this party has got a face. That’s why the majority of office-bearers of Apna Dal have stayed with Krishna, who has now developed the capacity to swing a significant section of Kurmis in the state.”
This reading of the situation, however, has some dissenters.
Neelratan Neelu, who was state general secretary of the united Apna Dal until recently, has switched over to Anupriya Patel, who has made him the national general secretary of the Apna Dal she claims to lead.
“Anupriya Patel represents the real Apna Dal,” said Neelu. “She is a minister, and people see a lot of possibilities in her. Her induction in the Cabinet was made only after the Prime Minister ascertained that she represents the real Apna Dal.”
Neelratan’s claims, however, are at odds with the manner in which Krishna Patel has become one of the most sought after leaders of Uttar Pradesh. “We are in touch with several parties, but we haven’t finalised any alliance as yet,” she said.
Apna Dal’s state general secretary Pankaj Seth opened up a little more on the talks. “We are talking to leaders of the Janata Dal-United, Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party,” he said. “On July 28, the national and state leaders of our party will meet to take stock of our talks with these parties. Things will start becoming clear after that meeting.”
Whichever side Krishna Patel goes to, the BJP will be a net loser as it has factored in the support of the crucial Kurmi voters in its electoral strategy to consolidate non-Yadav Other Backward Classes in the poll-bound state.