Anyone who saw and heard Bharatiya Janata Party President Amit Shah thank Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on Sunday for his support for the Centre’s demonetisation decision would have been baffled. Coming in the midst of talks of the Janata Dal (United) leader going soft on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Shah’s remarks have made political observers curious.
“I welcome Bihar Chef Minister Nitish Kumar’s support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s fight against black money,” the BJP chief said at a rally in Karnataka.
Kumar, a one-time ally turned bitter foe of the BJP, had earlier that day reiterated his support for the demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 banknotes. He said that he was taking a “a principled stand” because he felt the move would help fight black money, and had nothing to do with politics.
The development, as expected, has baffled Kumar’s allies in Bihar – the Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress, who are part of the Opposition fightback against the government’s decision. Kumar has became a rallying point against Modi in the Bihar Assembly polls of 2015 and has been trying hard to capitalise on this image outside the state for the last few months As a result, his allies have found it difficult to comprehend how a politician could break ranks and stand with an ideology he so vehemently swore to oppose.
Though people close to the Bihar chief minister described his move as “a tactical positioning aimed to prevent BJP from taking any undue advantage in case the demonetisation decision plays out well”, the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal are apprehensive, especially after the BJP president’s words of praise for Kumar.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal has maintained a studied silence on the issue, focusing instead on making the nationwide bandh against demonetisation called by the Opposition on Monday a success in Bihar. The Congress, meanwhile, has been measured in its response.
“Sharad Yadav is JD(U) leader in Rajya Sabha and he has been present in all the meetings of Opposition leaders held to protest against the government’s demonetisation decision,” Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said on Sunday.
Keeping allies guessing
Sending mixed messages is not uncommon in politics. But in the case of the Janata Dal (United), it seems unlikely. Sharad Yadav, who has been sulking ever since he was removed from the post of party president by Kumar in April, might simply not be following the latter’s script.
“This time, it may not be that simple for Nitish Kumar,” said a senior party leader. “The more Nitish shifts towards the BJP, the more Sharad Yadav will tilt towards the JD(U) allies [RJD and Congress].”
In political terms, baffling his allies as well as his opponents, has been Kumar’s strength. He used this strategy even while he was an ally of the BJP in the state – the 17-year-old partnership broke up in 2013 over Modi’s elevation as the BJP’s campaign face for the 2014 general elections. At that time, Kumar used to keep a window open for the Congress, just as he seems to be doing now for the BJP on the demonetisation controversy.
“This strategy helps him keep his allies under constant pressure,” said a Janata Dal (United) leader considered close to the chief minister. “For a leader like Nitish Kumar who does not have any major caste or community standing firmly with him as Lalu Prasad has in Bihar or Mulayam Singh Yadav has in Uttar Pradesh, this is the only way he can survive at the top of the state’s political structure.”
The strategy may well work again in Bihar. But it also threatens to make him undependable in the eyes of other parties, a factor that may severely undermine his national ambitions.
