As family feuds divide leading political parties in UP and Tamil Nadu, the BJP may stand to gain

Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh may be geographically far apart but recent political developments suggest the two states are bound by a common thread.

Family feuds in the leading political parties of these electorally-crucial states have resurfaced almost simultaneously, giving rise to speculation that these have been orchestrated by the Bharatiya Janata Party with an eye on next year’s Lok Sabha election.

In Uttar Pradesh, Shivpal Yadav, the estranged uncle of Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav, launched a new political front, the Samajwadi Secular Morcha, on August 29. It will unite smaller parties and reach out to unhappy leaders in his old party, Shivpal Yadav said. He added that his fledgling party would contest all 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh.

The rebel leader is said to have the blessings of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath while expelled Samajwadi Party leader Amar Singh is also learned to have played a part in instigating Shivpal Yadav to float a new party. Coincidentally, Amar Singh – known as Mr Fixit in political circles – is said to be cozying up to the BJP for some time now.

In Tamil Nadu, expelled Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam leader MK Alagiri has decided to take on his brother and new party chief MK Stalin following the death of their father M Karunanidhi on August 7. Alagiri plans to hold a massive rally in Chennai on Wednesday, ostensibly to pay homage to Karunanidhi but essentially meant as a show of strength. “The real party cadres are with me,” he said last week. “The numbers will go up after the rally.”

Why the states matter to the BJP

These developments may not appear to be linked but it is no coincidence that these two states are electorally crucial for the BJP. The party chalked up a remarkable performance in Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 general election when it won 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats. It is important that the BJP does not lose its pre-eminent position in this Hindi heartland state if it wants another shot at power next year.

To do that, it has to make sure that its political rivals are weakened and not allowed to come together in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

While it is important for the BJP to stay ahead of its rivals in Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu has acquired a special significance for the party as it looks to make inroads in the southern states. Though the BJP has a significant presence in Karnataka, it has never had a base in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, which has been dominated by the two Dravidian parties – the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, which is currently in power, and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

However, the BJP believes it has a chance to establish itself in Tamil Nadu given the political vacuum in the state today and the uncertainty in the two regional parties. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam has been in constant turmoil since J Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016 while Stalin is yet to prove his credentials as the new chief of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

Given the fluid situation in the state and the BJP’s political ambitions, the party will not be averse to helping Alagiri to ensure that Stalin is not allowed to settle down and take advantage of the anti-incumbency against the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam government. At the same time, the BJP is also shopping around for useful allies in Tamil Nadu.

Weakening the Opposition

Like Alagiri, Shivpal Yadav had been lying low after his falling-out with Akhilesh Yadav more than two years ago, but decided to up the ante just when the Lok Sabha polls are less than a year away. Both leaders are not expected to make a major dent in their states but could prove to be a nuisance, especially since the current leaders of the Samajwadi Party and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam have a lot riding on the 2019 election.

Shivpal Yadav’s revolt also comes at a time when the Samajwadi Party and its one-time political rival, the Bahujan Samaj Party, are planning to put up a united fight against the ruling BJP in the Lok Sabha election. The Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Congress will be included in this coalition. This proposed joint front spells serious trouble for the BJP as their combined caste arithmetic could upset its calculations – as proved in the Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana Lok Sabha bye-polls earlier this year, when a united Opposition succeeded in snatching these seats from the saffron party.

Shivpal Yadav may not be a mass leader but he is well networked with party cadre as he was in charge of organisational affairs and played a key role in the 2012 Assembly polls when the Samajwadi Party registered a handsome victory and Akhilesh Yadav became chief minister. Though Samajwadi Party leaders are confident that the disaffected leader’s rebellion will not have much impact, the BJP is depending on his new political outfit to divide Opposition votes and create confusion among Yadavs, who have traditionally supported the Samajwadi Party.

The recent events in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu fit in with the BJP’s strategy for next year’s electoral challenge – mollify its current partners, reach out to new allies, create confusion in the ranks of rival parties and work assiduously to ensure that the proposed grand alliance of Opposition parties does not fructify.