Twelve days after the Pulwama attack which killed 40 Central Reserve Police Force personel, Indian fighter planes crossed over into Pakistani airspace in the early hours of Tuesday to strike a Jaish-e-Mohammad training camp, India Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said. A large number of people training for fidayeen [suicide] action were killed in this “non-military pre-emptive strike”, he said
Jaish-e-Mohammad had taken responsibility for the Pulwama attack.
Clearing up confusion
The initial news of the Indian Air Force entering Pakistani air space was acknowledged by the Pakistan Army spokesperson at 5.12 am. With scanty details from Pakistan and none from India initially, experts took some time to establish what exactly had happened. Within a few hours, however, it was clear: the Indian Air Force had gone for broke, targeting the area around Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Initially, some had believed that the target was in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
Sources confirm that the biggest JeM training camp that India struck today was the one in Balakot, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
— Suhasini Haidar (@suhasinih) February 26, 2019
The air force 'non military' action at Balakot took place deep inside Pakistan, and not PoK. The line of control is 80 km as the crow flies.
— Manu Pubby (@manupubby) February 26, 2019
400 km from the Adampur airbase. pic.twitter.com/vkWhsyGmpw
Dhruva Jaishankar, Foreign Policy Fellow at the United States-based Brookings thinktank, explained the significant of Balakot: it was a Jaish-e-Mohammad hub.
There's plenty of intel on JeM activities at #Balakot from 2001 onwards, and not just by India. Al-Murabitoon (JeM branch) rallies, training, etc. on a facility at Besyan Chowk in Balakot. Attacks on LoC, against Americans in Afghanistan, and in Pakistan were planned there.
— Dhruva Jaishankar (@d_jaishankar) February 26, 2019
An American academic at Johns Hopkins SAIS explained how the area was associated with India-focused terror groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba.
It should be noted that there has been comparatively less reporting in recent years. But it remains the case that Balakot is one of the areas in KP most closely associated, historically, with India-focused groups like JeM and LeT. (6/6)
— Joshua White (@joshuatwhite) February 26, 2019
A huge step
This was the first time since the 1971 war that India had entered Pakistani airpsace.
The IAF did *not* cross the LoC in Kargil, on direct order not to do so from PM Vajpayee. Not even in hot pursuit even though some claim the IAF believe that Vajpayee’s directive did not apply in that scenario (thankfully they never had to test it afaik)
— Vipin Narang (@NarangVipin) February 26, 2019
What happened the last time that the IAF wanted to cross the Line of Control (during the Kargil war in 1999). "No. No crossing the LoC" https://t.co/9IjnB5b6ec pic.twitter.com/dWD3B1Cbh1
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 26, 2019
It was also the first time that conventional airpower that been used by one nuclear power against another, said security expert Ankit Panda.
Okay. @nitingokhale reporting that IAF •did• strike Jaish-e-Mohammed facilities in KPK—that’s huge. First use of conventional airpower by one nuclear-armed power against another nuclear-armed power’s territory, AFAIK. (KPK is not disputed.) https://t.co/banHBqdqlg
— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) February 26, 2019
Scholar Ayesha Siddiqa pointed that even if one were to take at face value Pakistan’s statement that the Indian strikes had not caused any damage, the attack still represents a huge escalation.
Even if payload jettisoned and aircraft left it is redrawing red lines. Let’s eee where the diplomatic war goes now
— Ayesha Siddiqa (@iamthedrifter) February 26, 2019
Significantly, though, the move seemed to have ended the threat of nuclear retalitation by Pakistan, pointed out security experts KC Singh and Amitabh Mattoo.
Whatever next kudos to #IndianAirForce for penetrating deep in Pak without challenge & hitting targets. Shows superior tactics/technology. Worry for Pakistan on two counts: India can escalate beyond artillery duels or small special ops; nuclear blackmail ended last night.
— K. C. Singh (@ambkcsingh) February 26, 2019
For how long did Pakistan expect us to let them get away with asymmetry warfare under a nuclear umbrella? The game has ended!
— Amitabh Mattoo (@amitabhmattoo) February 26, 2019
Narrative battle
Even as experts and jouralists scrambled for information, a narrative war began between India and Pakistan on how this was to be presented.
An academic at the Univeristy of Chicago pointed out that the Pakistan Army had tweeted out photos that claimed that the Indian air strike had done no damage.
Definitely possible. but have to imagine there will be a massive narrative battle about damage (already seeing this in surreal ISPR photo-tweeting)
— Paul Staniland (@pstanpolitics) February 26, 2019
spin war https://t.co/Z1HX4Fjdrj
— Paul Staniland (@pstanpolitics) February 26, 2019
Other commentators pointed that India and Pakistan were, rather delicately, not escalating matters.
To me this means Modi & co. settling for tier 2 PR - effectively unverifiable and/or plausibly deniable (by Pak) - as #Pulwama response. Frankly I’m relieved, as tier 1 response - Cold Start-type conventional attack - would risk nuclear escalation. https://t.co/guuacmrAcn
— Narayan Lakshman (@narlak) February 26, 2019
If you’re just following along and wondering why both sides’ narratives are incompatible, that’s just how this goes—and how escalation can be avoided. I wouldn’t expect that to change unless India (inadvisably) releases footage/evidence of the strikes.
— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) February 26, 2019
From earlier today my analysis about why this crisis seemed so likely to conclude with Indian use of force, and the pressures that will put on Pakistan to respond. Now we see whether “deny and minimize”, the 2016 strategy, can work one more time to defray Pakistani audience costs https://t.co/SixLRdyOEV
— Christopher Clary (@clary_co) February 26, 2019
*very little* is confirmed about the overnight air activity in kashmir. keep in mind that as long as neither side pushes back against the other's story, this will most likely fizzle out, as designed https://t.co/4x6GH8y5Ru
— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) February 26, 2019
So, this is starting to look like ISPR is going to put on a dog and pony show to substantiate its version of events—which could raise pressure in Delhi to substantiate claims. Managing the public diplomacy around this without creating cause for escalation is crucial.
— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) February 26, 2019
What next?
Airstrikes between two nuclear armed powers can lead to some very destabilising consequences. However, most experts were of the view that Pakistan would not escalate matters beyond a point.
There is rarely a possibility to test IR predictions. But here's a live one. A lot of the 'nuke danger in SAsia' is based on assumption Pak will ESCALATE if Ind responds militarily to terror attacks. Always struck me as unlikely. Let's see what happens.
— Rajesh Rajagopalan (@RRajagopalanJNU) February 26, 2019
#Balakot What next:1. India bombed terrorist camps not military targets. Pak can’t retaliate in kind as India has no such camps 2.Pak can keep claiming no damage & ignore raid, but GOI may reveal satellite imagery for PR. 3.Pak may allege civilian deaths, widening target range.
— K. C. Singh (@ambkcsingh) February 26, 2019
Difficult at such a time. For military-strategic and political reasons it may benefit on both sides to give limited versions
— Ayesha Siddiqa (@iamthedrifter) February 26, 2019
Lt. Gen DS Hooda, former General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Indian Army’s Northern Command, was also of the view that this would not lead to war. “As far as tension is concerned, I think there is bound to be some tension for some time,” he said. “But I don’t think we should be so worried about it, that this could lead to an all out war or something.”
However, Lt Gen HS Panag, former General Officer Commanding-in-Chief Northern Command and Central Command of the Indian Army, struck a contradictory note, argued that rather than play down the airstrike, “Pakistan will respond militarily”.
Also read:
IAF strike on Pakistan: What is a ‘non-military preemptive action’?