The composition of Kerala’s three-pronged coalition arrangement is all set to change as the Kerala Congress (Mani), the Catholic Church-backed political entity that weilds considerable influence in Christian-dominated Kottayam and Idukki districts, begins its search for a suitable alliance.

The ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist)-headed Left Democratic Front, the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance are the three major political formations in Kerala with the former two taking turns to rule the state every five years. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Communist Party of India are the major partners in the Left Democratic Front while the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League are the frontline parties in the United Democratic Front.

The Kerala Congress (Mani) was founded in 1979 by veteran leader KM Mani after he broke away from the Kerala Congress. It was part of the United Democratic Front for 35 years till August last year, when it walked out of the coalition, accusing the Congress of trying to destroy the party and tarnish the image of its leaders. The trigger was allegations against Mani that he had accepted bribes from bar owners to renew liquor licences. The charges had cost him the finance minister’s job in 2015 after the Kerala High Court questioned the rationale of his continuation in office when the investigation into the bar bribery case was on.

Since August, the Kerala Congress (Mani) has not associated with any of the established coalitions. But on Wednesday, during the election of the Kottayam district panchayat president, Mani sent out a strong message that he was not averse to joining the Left coalition. He secured the support of the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist) and ensured the victory of his representative, Zacharias Kuthiraveli, over Congress candidate Sunny Pambadi.

This shocked the Congress, but Mani later cautioned against reading too much into the Kottayam incident. On Thursday, addressing a press conference in Thiruvananthapuram, he said the Kerala Congress (Mani) had not applied for entry either to the Left Democratic Front or the United Democratic Front. “Kerala Congress (M) is not blindly opposed to any political party,” he said. “We are not anti-Congress either.”

Political moves

But the 84-year-old, one of Kerala’s senior-most politicians who completed 50 years in the Assembly in March, is not one to drops hints without a reason.

He split the Kerala Congress in 1979 over differences with its leader, PJ Joseph, and went on to form his own party. He joined hands with Joseph again in 1985, only to part ways in 1987. In 2010, he welcomed Joseph to the Kerala Congress (Mani). The break-ups and reunions benefited Mani the most as his party went on to become the third largest constituent of the United Democratic Front. As the unchallenged head of his party, he could groom his son, Jose K Mani, as his political heir.

But many of his recent political calculations have gone wrong, giving rise to doubts about his credibility.

Former Kerala Congress (Mani) chairman PC George has alleged that Mani planned to become chief minister with the backing of the Left coalition in 2015, while still serving as the Congress-led alliance’s finance minister. George claimed to have tried to broker an agreement with leaders of the Communist Party of India (Marxist). The plan did not materialise after the bar bribery scandal erupted.

Months before the Kerala Congress (Mani) left the United Democratic Front, Mani also held talks with BJP leaders and rumours were rife that he would be joining the National Democratic Front. But this split the Kerala Congress (Mani) in March with three senior leaders – Francis George, Antony Raju and KC Joseph – walking out of the party.

Options for Mani

At Thursday’s press conference, Mani asked whether it was a crime to associate with the Left Democratic Front.

At the moment, joining the Left alliance seems to be the best option for Mani. Congress leaders have already accused him of wanting to join the ruling front to save himself from the bar bribery case.

Mani has some history with the Left Democratic Front, having aligned with it in the 1980 Assembly elections, along with senior Congress leader AK Antony.

The Communist Party of India (Marxist), on its part, has remained non-committal about the Kerala Congress (Mani), only terming its support to that party in the panchayat election as part of its tactical approach to defeat the Congress.

On the other hand, Mani will not be averse to joining the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance either if it promises him the post of governor and a seat in the Union Cabinet for his son. The BJP, too, would be keen to welcome him into its fold to win over the Christian community in Kerala, where it is working hard to make inroads. But in such a scenario, Mani would have quite a task convincing the Catholic community about the advantages of joining a coalition led by a party with a Hindutva ideology.

The third option for Mani, a return to the United Democratic Front, looks bleak as the state and district units of the Congress have taken a tough stand against him. The Kottayam District Congress Committee on Friday adopted a resolution asking the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee not to accept Mani and his son Jose K Mani into the alliance.

Congress leader and former chief minister Oommen Chandy, who was one of Mani’s biggest supporters, termed the Kerala Congress (Mani)’s decision to join hands with the ruling Left party for the panchayat election an act of political betrayal. MM Hassan, interim president of the state Congress, made it even clearer by saying the United Democratic Front’s doors were shut to Mani, and that he and his son would suffer the same fate as Judas, who had betrayed Jesus for 30 pieces of silver.

As he mulls over his next move, Mani will also have to contain dissidence within his party and avoid another split. Two senior leaders, PJ Joseph and Mons Joseph, skipped a meeting called by Mani on Friday to discuss political developments, indicating that all is not well within the Kerala Congress (Mani).